Doing Scenarios - scenarios can help predict the future

Whole Earth, Spring, 1999 by Art Kleiner

Reality checks for scenarios require a multirude of testing techniques: the Delphi technique; modeling; simulations that result in "influence diagrams"; decision-trees or branches that say, "If this does or doesn't happen, then what?"; cross-impact analysis,; trend analysis with special attention to potential breaks in the trend; and historic (a.k.a. precursor) analysis, which looks to similar moments and trends in history (see sidebars). Some teams rehearse the scenarios as if they were pieces of improvisational theater, each participant taking the part of a different key actor or driving force. A rule: Track down the most surprising elements. Don't dismiss them as too improbable. Thinking the unthinkable may be the most rational thought.

You may find that your scenarios go through several iterations, as you get closer to the "heart of the lesson" in each. At the core of each one is a message your group is trying to tell itself, an insight that you are trying to see collectively, valuable precisely because it is so hard to see. You are never done, but you will have created a language to voice these hard-to-come-by insights.

7. IMPLICATIONS

Regrettably, many scenario exercises stop here. But the real work that yields real benefits is just beginning.

We must now return to the original issue, question, or decision/dilemma, and their key factors. What would our decision look like in those worlds? How do the scenarios affect the people we care about? How are we most vulnerable in each scenario? Will our present decision-making apparatus work in all scenarios? How could we adapt to each scenario or be prepared if we see one of them coming? How fast could the organization change to meet the scenario's challenge? What do they suggest about our current strategies--are we setting ourselves up for a rude awakening? If each world came to pass, what would we want to have been thinking about ahead of time?

8. STRATEGIC VISIONS AND ORACLES

We have set the scenarios up as competing oracles. It is important to know which oracle is closest to the actual course of history as it actually unfolds. For corporations, this is the stage to select indicators that will advise the company that one of the three or four scenarios seems to be the path chosen by the world itself. It's time for to develop an early-warning apparatus to allow the company to switch faster (the competitive advantage), join with another firm (symbiotic advantage), or take other action to survive longer and better. Those concerned with a sustainable world have yet to find the best indicators, but look for weather vanes in the shapes of endangered species, numbers of educated children, or level of equitable nutrition.

Finally, I ask a question that is not necessarily part of scenarios that try to adapt to changing environments or focus on profit and survival. I ask: "What kind of world do I want to help create?" Some of the scenarios might represent warnings--futures that can be avoided if you take the appropriate steps now. Others might represent some kind of high road, an "unattainable" ideal that you now realize is indeed attainable, because the scenario has shown you how to look for the leverage you need.