Learning to Manage While Managing to Learn

Whole Earth, Summer, 2001 by Gary Peterson

The Ecological Detective Confronting Models with Data Ray Hilborn and Marc Mangel 1997; 330 pp. $24.95 Princeton University Press

An excellent accessible introduction to ecological problem solving. --GP

"Each of the case studies we use to illustrate a particular point is a bona fide research study conducted by one of us. Even so, some readers of drafts accused us of the unpleasant and unprofessional, but too common (especially in evolutionary biology), behavior of setting up "strawpersons" just to knock them down ... This charge is unfair. These apparently ridiculous models were in fact proposed and used by pretty smart people. Why? Because they had no alternative models. Our view is that the confrontation between more than one model arbitrated by the data underlies science. If there is only one model, it will be used, whether the questions concern management (as in the Serengeti example) or basic science (as in the insect oviposition example). Without multiple models, there is no alternative.

Adaptive Management of Renewable Resources C. J. Walters 1986

Out of Print, but available from Fisheries Center at the University of British Columbia, www.fisheries.ubc.ca /Books/books.htm

This book is a classic. It focuses on the organizational technical and modeling aspects of adaptive management. The book's early chapters are very accessible while the later ones provide a wealth of technical detail on mathematical approaches to management under uncertainty. --GP

"When you reject the extreme stances and recognize modeling as a very human way of groping for understanding, it should be obvious who will benefit most from it: those who engage in it directly A great deal of money has been wasted by government agencies on contracts to model builders, in the hope that grand predictive models will be produced and then used by the agency The modelers certainly learned a lot from these efforts, and have produced many lovely (and largely ignored) reports detailing formulations, predictions, and uncertainties. A few of the models have seen some use, but mostly as interactive computer games that are not taken seriously, or as generators of thick printouts to impress audiences who will never read them.

Compass and Gyroscope Integrating Science and Politics for the Environment K. Lee 1995 (reprint ed.); 243 pp. $19.95 Island Press

In elegantly written introduction to adaptive management that emphasizes social learning and politics. --GP

"I have come to think of science and democracy as compass and gyroscope--navigational aids in the quest for sustainability Science linked to human purpose is a compass: a way to gauge directions when sailing beyond the maps. Democracy, with its contentious stability is a gyroscope: a way to maintain our bearing though turbulent seas. Compass and gyroscope do not assure safe passage through rough, uncharted waters, but the prudent voyager uses all instruments available, profiting from their individual virtues.

Conservation Ecology www.consecol.org Free

This is a five-year-old, peer-reviewed, Internet-based ecology journal that is the leading journal on theory and practice of adaptive management. Its editor-in-chief is C.S. Holling, one of the founders of adaptive management. --GP

Nature continually changes. Yet people and animals depend upon a reliable supply of clean air, fresh water, and fertile soil. How can we maintain the ecologies that we need and love amid continual, unpredictable change?

Ecological management offers an answer, but is difficult. Like walking in the dark, ecological management is an activity full of uncertainty. To make matters worse, the continual change of nature makes you unsure of where you stand, while nature's unpredictability means that those snuffling sounds you hear in the distance could be coming towards you.

In nature, uncertainty is inescapable. While collecting ecological data can help reduce uncertainty, it can't eliminate it all. Consider Lake Mendota, Wisconsin. Scientists have extensively studied this lake for over a hundred years. They understand a lot about the lake--the dynamics of fish, what controls aquatic weeds, and when it will turn green. However other dynamics remain uncertain. Lake Mendota is currently soaking up a fair amount of fertilizer from the farms in the lake's watershed. One of the world's top lake ecologists, Prof. Steve Carpenter, recently attempted to predict if the lake would be irreversibly changed by these inputs of nutrients. But even with excellent data and solid ecological theory, the complexity of nature prevented him from being able to predict whether changes will be irreversible.

Ecologists have nevertheless been getting better at sketching the big picture, and figuring out effective ways to cope with this uncertainty. There are a variety of ways to manage unpredictable complexity.

People can simply ignore it, and try to bull their way through. They can seek solace in simplistic explanations that claim certainty. In ecological management, this approach manifests itself as top-down, command-and-control practice.