The odds on making a hole-in-one - Brief Article

Golf Digest, March, 2000

GOLF DIGEST has been the source for acer odds since the 1950s. To update them for the 21st century, we gave the latest numbers for rounds played each year (528 million) and estimated aces (100,000) to Francis Scheid, Ph.D., retired chairman of the mathematics department at Boston University. "It's simple arithmetic," Scheid says for the following scenarios, which assume four par 3s of varying lengths in an 18-hole round.

A player making an ace in a given round: 5,000 to 1

Two players, same foursome, acing same hole: 17 million to 1

Acing a designated hole in a single round: 20,000 to 1

Two players in a field of 200 acing same hole in a single round: 5,000 to 1

Acing the same hole more than once in 1,000 rounds: 1 in 200

Two aces in a single round, same player: 67 million to 1

Getting an ace in a 1,000-round career: 1 in 5

Three aces in a single round, same player: 2 trillion to 1

Getting an ace in a 5,000-round career: Almost a sure thing