Leadership forecasting: the development and selection of school leaders starts with the end in mind by considering future vacancies, both known and unknown

Leadership, Sept-Oct, 2004 by Suzette Lovely

"We just are not inundated with great applicants out there. The typical school district isn't going to be able to pull in some wonderful savior."--From the Voice of a Superintendent, Public Agenda, 2001

If you advertise, they won't necessarily come. And if they do come, you may have to "settle and take what [you] get," according to six in 10 superintendents across the United States (Public Agenda, 2001). Who am I talking about? Why, school principals, of course.

By now, the educational community is all too familiar with the perfect storm that is converging to create a national shortage of principals:

* Fifty-four percent of U.S. principals are over age 50;

* Workload and insurmountable expectations are discouraging teachers from pursuing careers in administration; and

* Principals, on average, leave after five years because they're ill prepared for the job.

With fewer candidates to fill openings, students will bear the brunt of the leadership deficit unless the pipeline is shored up.

A look at the applicant pool

What does the applicant pool actually look like nowadays? In 2002-03, the state of Washington summoned 34 retired principals back to work to fill in as districts desperately sought new prospects (AWSP, 2003). Although California produces 2,000 to 3,500 freshly licensed administrators each year, only 38 percent assume leadership positions in the state's schools (Orozco & Oliver, 2001). The majority either remains in the classroom or changes careers entirely.

Nearly half of New York City's 1,100 public schools are managed by principals with less than three years experience (Archer, 2002). Although women now comprise 35 percent of the nation's principals, up from 2 percent in 1988, there has only been a 3 percent increase in the number of minority principals since 1999 (Fenwick & Pierce, 2001). Making matters worse, 73 percent of the nation's school districts have no program in place to prepare or support aspiring principals.

Preparing tomorrow's principals today

My own employer, the rapidly growing Capistrano Unified School District, has hired 28 new principals since 1999. To attract top-notch people, the superintendent and board have designed an administrative development plan that consists of a grow-your-own career ladder, a two-tiered credentialing partnership with Chapman University and a systematic induction program for newcomers.

For example, all first- and second-year principals receive formal coaching and mentoring. Capistrano has found that the investment up front pays dividends in the end since a principal's inaugural year is a strong predictor of future success. Central office administrators coordinate the sharing of resources--both human and material--to ensure good habits are developed from the get-go.

Regardless of the depth or complexity of the leadership void in your organization, doing nothing is no longer an option. Leadership forecasting--or succession planning as it's called in the private sector--is a realistic solution. Preparing tomorrow's principals today guarantees uninterrupted learning for students, aligns recruitment systems with leadership renewal, engages the superintendent and senior managers in a thorough examination of existing talent, and prevents premature promotions (Hagberg, 2002). After all, who wants to work in a leaderless school?

Start with the end in mind

Leadership forecasting is the proactive development and selection of school administrators. The process starts with the end in mind by considering future vacancies, both known and unknown. A viable pool of candidates is waiting in the wings to tackle the principalship and other gateway positions as openings occur. Since it's impossible to predict every vacancy in advance, forecasting ensures continuity of leadership where it counts the most--inside the principal's office.

In the traditional approach of replacement planning, districts react to openings by filling them with outsiders and/or insiders who aren't necessarily prepared or ready for a promotion. Replacement systems perpetuate the status quo and can lead to performance issues, excessive turnover, unfilled vacancies over longer stretches of time and higher recruitment costs.

Leadership forecasting, on the other hand, is an economical and efficient way to sidestep the experience gap being caused by the retirements on the horizon. When principals leave the game, a seamless transition ensues as the relief pitcher moves from the bullpen to the mound.

Filling your succession pool

A coordinated response to the principal shortage requires districts to harvest home-grown talent. Therefore, a mechanism must be established to identify teacher leaders for entry-level assignments. Prospects should demonstrate competency in areas such as instructional knowledge, organization, communication, problem solving and work ethic.

Existing principals have to take personal responsibility for bringing new recruits into the fold. Teaching Assistant Principal (TAP) or Teacher on Special Assignment (TOSA) programs are excellent launch pads for assembling your succession pool.