War without oil: catalyst for transformation

Air Force Journal of Logistics, Fall, 2006 by Michael J. Hornitschek

Mindful of the fact that DoE has predicted Hubbert's Peak will occur around 2037, by 2035 both the DoD and the private sector will likely be deeply involved in a large-scale conversion to the new energy. The real and environmental costs of maintaining old systems will likely rise exponentially, building the case for rapid elimination. Because of Stage I and II efforts, state-of-the-art facilities, systems, and even soldiers should by this time operate on a standard energy bus, relying heavily on computer optimization and networking for maximum communication and situational awareness.

As the vision for 2050 draws near, energy can be expected to be produced in a variety of ways as part of a highly distributed network (not to be confused with a centralized distribution network) and almost exclusively take one of two forms: electricity or hydrogen. It is not inconceivable that electricity will be produced by state-of-the-art coal and natural gas facilities; ubiquitous solar, wind, geothermal, thermoelectric, and ocean tide and thermal sources; various-sized nuclear plants, hydrogen fuel cells, and even on-vehicle generators. Hydrogen will be derived from water electrolysis, large scale photolysis, reformation of remaining hydrocarbon fuels, and other chemical processes. It will be either safely shipped from domestic sources, or more likely produced locally. Only in the rarest of cases will it rely on foreign fuel stocks, and then only if the risk and benefit analysis demonstrates that it is situationally more advantageous to do so. Unfortunately, aircraft systems will likely be the last to undergo the new energy conversion, operationally restricted by power, weight, and volume constraints until technologies are most mature (remember that the DoD actually produced a hydrogen-powered jet engine as early as 1957, indicating that once hydrogen storage issues are resolved, the hydrogen aircraft may become a reality). (144)

In the end, as the DoD and the nation grow comfortable with the new energy paradigm, and the threat of petroleum energy insecurity fades, the transition of remaining activities to the new energy standard will be self-sustaining. A new-found post-petroleum energy security and the experiences of a somewhat long and painful, but otherwise successful energy transformation, will likely enable the DoD and the nation to eventually continue pursuit of even more advanced energy concepts such as nuclear propulsion, nuclear fusion, space solar generation, moon energy exploration, and matter-anti-matter propulsion, to name a few.

As demonstrated, the journey to the DoD's energy future will be both monumental and complex, requiring enormous strategic leadership to accomplish the desired results. By using a proven transformation methodology such as Dr Kotter's eight-step process to develop a sense of urgency and the vision of the energy future it wishes to create, the DoD can then begin to dissect the scope of the problem and identify and execute the best strategy for creating the energy future it desires. To quote EIA's director, Dr Caruso, oil peaking is a problem that will occur "... within the present century." (145)