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Operational readiness as a function of maintenance personnel skill level

Air Force Journal of Logistics, Fall, 2007 by Justin R. Chimka, Heather Nachtmann

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

Introduction

Oliver, et al., identified the key logistic and operational factors associated with mission capable (MC) rates. (1) Correlation analysis was performed to identify the key factors associated with MC rates and various logistic factors (such as logistic functions and personnel) and operational factors (such as funding and environment) and their associated interactions. Regression analysis was used to explain and predict F-16 MC rates using quarterly data by flying year. Personnel skill levels, cannibalization, and funding levels were found to be significant factors.

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These research findings led to the recognition that the Air Force does not currently have a metric to relate maintenance (MX) personnel skill level to operational readiness. Building upon Oliver's work, objectives of this research are to further investigate relationships between personnel skill level and mission capability, and to develop an associated metric and standard. Specifically, a metric which measures MC rate as a function of MX personnel skill level has been developed. A simple example metric is the number of 5-level personnel per aircraft. Once a metric has been determined, a standard for it can be developed which might be thought of as an objective tied to Air Force operational goals. Relationships between maintenance personnel skill level and multiple utilization and reliability and maintainability (RM) performance measures have also been examined. Finally, we have contributed an effective methodology for producing the results described here.

Background

Headquarters Air Force, Air Combat Command and Air Mobility Command have each been developing models to predict readiness rates such as MC rate, aircraft maintenance production capability, and aircraft availability. The common goal of these models is to augment decisionmaking capability among logistics managers at various levels in anticipation of improved readiness. Oliver expressed concern about total readiness Air Force-wide as characterized by a general decrease in MC rate and increases in total not mission capable for maintenance (NMCM) and total not mission capable for supply (NMCS) rates. (2)

While there are many readiness forecasting models in use, several have gained prominence. The Funding/Availability Multi-Method Allocator for Spares (FAMMAS) is one such forecasting model which makes use of an exponential smoothing algorithm to predict MC rates based on past values. (3) Oliver also notes that while FAMMAS does well predicting MC rate based on inflation, carryover and lead time factors, there are other logistics factors such as maintenance manning and maintenance skill levels, retention, break rates, fix rates, operations tempo, spare parts issues, and RM of aircraft that are not taken into account by FAMMAS.

A second readiness forecasting model which has seen much use is the Logistics Composite Model (LCOM). LCOM uses historical data or engineered estimates to populate a Monte Carlo simulation in order to conduct weapon system capability analyses and determine required support resources for a given weapon system capability. (4) LCOM does not examine issues such as the effect of maintenance personnel skill levels on these forecasts.

The Mission Capable Rate and Aircraft Availability Modeling and Simulation Summit in Washington, DC addressed observations of the General Accountability Office and recognized that a suitable model to predict MC rates and establish suitable goals should contain the following dependent variables:

* MC rate

* NMCM rate

* NMCS rate.

Suitable independent variables should deal with resources, funding, manpower, and programming data. (5) As discussed in the remainder of this section, manpower has been specifically studied many times in order to both understand it better and quantify its effects more accurately. (6,7,8,9)

Howell studied the effects of personnel skill level on sortie, mission generation, and manpower requirements. (10) Through the use of operational audits, standard times for the completion of tasks related to the maintenance of F-4E aircraft were obtained. These data, along with failure rates obtained through Air Force maintenance databases, were used to populate a maintenance unit simulation through LCOM. Two separate, unconstrained simulation models were run. The first was run using only 3-level maintainers, and the other was run using only 5-level maintainers. Howell's study found that 3-levels produced only 76 percent of sorties produced by 5-levels, and 3-levels took 1.34 times as many man-hours as the corresponding 5-levels. Additional experimentation with a constrained model found 3-levels actually take an average of 1.463 times as long to complete a given task. These results led to suggestions of grouping teams of 3- and 5-level maintainers in more effective ways.

Garcia and Racher examined the effects of skill level differences within LCOM. (11) They noted that 3-level maintainers must frequently accomplish tasks beyond their skill level. As a result, these tasks take significantly longer and contain more mistakes than if they were performed by 5-level maintainers. Since LCOM fails to model this, manning requirements may be understated. The current work provides a methodology to modify LCOM to reflect differing skill levels in the completion of maintenance tasks.

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Operational readiness as a function of maintenance personnel skill level

Air Force Journal of Logistics, Fall, 2007 by Justin R. Chimka, Heather Nachtmann

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