The Savage War of Peace—An Uncertain Future We Can't Ignore - Brief Article

Air Force Journal of Logistics, Winter, 2000 by Douglas E. Anderson

Peacekeeping is not a job for soldiers, but only a soldier can do it.

Charles Moskos, Military Sociologist

As military professionals, we must prepare now for an uncertain future. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has been called upon to participate in peace support. Major conflict with the Soviet Union is less relevant today, yet new concepts to respond to these emerging real-world situations and other threats have been slow to emerge. Unfortunately, other forms of conflict such as terrorism and information warfare continue to emerge also, in some cases, in our own homeland. In fact, many admit our national security establishment remains in a continuous transition phase. This phase is between the clear goals of a Cold War and an uncertain future characterized by these multiple operations. Imagine the following scenarios.

Several countries hover in a twilight zone between conflict and peace. Until the fall of the Wall or severed relations, animosities lay dormant, controlled or repressed by the presence of the great Cold War superpowers or regional neighbors. Once the dominance was released, grievances ensued, many of which had been festering for years, and were unleashed on the landscape causing incalculable misery. Unfortunately, civil strife, starvation, atrocities, and other forms of violence erupted, generating concern from post-Cold War global partners for peace. Action was taken, yet doctrine, objectives, coordination, weapon technologies, mental preparation, and training were either underdeveloped or mismatched to mitigate the conflict. In the end, more criticism on the use of available capabilities, bloodshed, or collateral damage continues.

Predictions about peacetime activities for post-Desert Storm fell short. Saddam Hussein escaped coups and dodged economic isolation. He backs extremist terrorist groups and continues to defy United Nations mandates on biochemical weapon production. As a result, terrorism and the use of biologicals has reared its ugly head with attacks on several US federal buildings, population centers, and embassies abroad similar to those in the movie Siege or the subway station in Japan. Yet, national and international law and polices remain at odds between key organizations, and new concepts of military operations on urban term are replete with far too many lessons learned.

Consider the often ignored but emerging information warfare scenario. The stock market is driven into a freefall of Asian technology investments. Nobody knows why, but they were automatically closed when the Dow plunged. Something worse occurred but was unrecognized. Wall Street's computer crashed. Nevertheless, due to a lag between input and output transactions, the crash went unnoticed and trading continued. The transactions failed to be recorded, and the next day, the financial world was in chaos. Several institutions reported millions in diverted funds. Nine months later an official Korea-China joint government Internet site announces increased investment in nuclear missile testing and weapons technology development activities.

The above scenarios are fictitious; however, they are not far from real-world situations, past operations, or emerging threats. Many foreign and defense policy analysts cite the shortcomings of previous real-world operations and respective outcomes. They call for reform to the savage war of peace.

As military professionals and experts in our respective specialties, we have a duty to envision these future savage-wars-of-peace scenarios and plan accordingly. We must answer questions now to prepare for this uncertain future. Take the military healthcare professionals as an example. They should be asking (and acting). Are we prepared with the right doctrine and force protection measures to respond to these scenarios?

* What types of assemblages, equipment, and systems are required to optimize our human weapon system?

* As the use of nonlethal weapons emerges, what type and how many casualties do we expect?

* Should we reshape our system capabilities to respond to a prevent-if-we-can, cure-if-we-must mission?

* How will we help others cope with the personal traumas of collateral damage, guilt, and anguish associated with mistakes?

* How will leadership motivate troops to deal with a fly-fight-win versus police-wait-see mentality?

* What new learning and training technologies can be applied to accelerate preparation for these operations?

* Do we need to collaborate with other local, civil, or federal agencies to ensure success of future operations?

* Could we apply the principles of psychological operations to create an environment or attitude of self-care?

* How do we monitor and protect our communication information systems from intrusions and disruption?

Although I have used the military healthcare professional as an example to suggest a response to this uncertain future or savage war of peace, I would challenge all military professionals to project, ponder, and integrate their collective experiences and thoughts in the above scenarios. It does not matter whether we fly jets, develop purchasing agreements with local populaces, guard airfield and housing perimeters, make policies, or design new weapon systems, our thoughts do count in this uncertain future. It is a team effort, and our military professional expertise with weapon systems capability, infrastructure, economics, environmental, and psychological issues are tied directly to national security.