The Chinese Armed Forces in the 21st Century. - Review - book review

Parameters, Winter, 2000 by Susan M. Puska

Edited by Larry M. Wortzel. Carlisle, Pa.: US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, 1999. 344 pages.

Red and blue ships face off against each other near the eastern shore of China and Taiwan on the cover of The Chinese Armed Forces in the 21st Century. In case you miss the point, crossed missiles adorned with the American and Chinese flags rise above the ships. The cover is a teaser, however, for this collection of nine papers, based on those presented at the eighth People's Liberation Army (PLA) Conference held at the Wye Plantation in Maryland in 1998. This is not simply a "China threat" argument. Rather, these papers reflect a diversity of perspectives among recognized experts on China's military modernization and national security. Like previous PLA conference publications, this book provides some important pieces to the China puzzle for US policymakers.

In "Geographic Ruminations," Michael McDevitt reminds the reader that China's strategic geography gives it "continental predominance" in Asia. Astride the heart of the Asian landmass and lacking any serious regional military threat, China "command[s] internal lines of communication throughout the continent." McDevitt is careful to separate China's strategic position from its strategic intentions within the region. He argues, however, that China faces a strategic dilemma--how to enhance its position (including power projection) without unduly alarming regional powers, who could withdraw support for China's economic development.

Eric A. McVadon's chapter, "The Chinese Military and the Peripheral States in the 21st Century: A Security Tour d'Horizon," follows up McDevitt's discussion of strategic geography with a comprehensive overview of China's bilateral and multilateral relations throughout Asia. He argues that although the "partially modernized PLA" already is a "formidable regional military force," China will continue to view the "pre-eminence of national economic development" throughout the region as the fulcrum on which it pursues national objectives.

Michael Pillsbury's chapter, "PLA Capabilities in the 21st Century: How Does China Assess Its Future Security Needs?," argues for enhanced analytical vigilance that is based on a more thorough and thoughtful exploitation of Chinese sources. He points out that analytical errors, such as static, force-on-force comparisons, mirror-imaging, or limiting the "geographic scope" of future scenarios, could lead to an underestimation of China's national security capabilities and objectives.

The following chapter, "Advancing Military Technology and the PLA: Priorities and Capabilities in the 21st Century," by Bernard D. Cole and Paul H. B. Godwin, methodically examines China's military production capabilities. This analysis concentrates on military production of key capabilities listed in the Military Critical Technologies List Part 1: Weapons Systems Technologies (MCTL), which was released by the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisitions and Technology) in 1996. The authors conclude that China is woefully inferior in critical areas that will inhibit its strategic ambitions. Consequently, China will remain overly dependent on foreign suppliers, such as Russia and Israel, for advanced military technology for the foreseeable future.

Larry M. Wortzel, the editor of this book, provides a cautionary view of China's strategic ambitions in "U.S.-China Military Relations in the 21st Century." He assesses that the PLA is "methodically developing...into a force that can project itself internally and regionally [and is] experimenting with ways to respond militarily to US forces." Wortzel argues the United States and China will naturally compete in the future over each country's respective place in the region.

In addition to discussing the PLA, this volume also examines an area often overlooked, Taiwan's military reform and modernization, in "Taiwan's Military in the 21st Century: Redefinition and Reorganization," by Arthur Shu-fan Ding and Alexander Chieh-cheng Huang, and in "Taiwan's Military: A View from Afar," by June Teufel Dryer.

Ellis Joffe's "Concluding Comment: The Political Angle--New Phenomena in Party-Army Relations," argues that the PLA has, contrary to prevailing analysis, actually enhanced its political potential, even if for the moment it appears to have lost some of its policymaking influence under President Jiang Zemin's leadership.

Collectively, these papers may not definitively answer whether China will become a friend or foe of the United States in the future. They do, however, reinforce certain conclusions: China is now the dominant power on the Asian continent. China stresses economic development over military modernization and seeks to avoid alarming regional powers about its intentions or capabilities. Further, China is ambivalent about the presence of the United States in East Asia. While it recognizes the utility of American forces to provide a measure of stability within the region, it does not accept the legitimacy of American military presence in Asia over the long term. Finally, although China's military modernization has been seriously inhibited by myriad problems, it nonetheless seeks to develop a modern military force with power-projection assets capable of protecting and promoting its national interests and sovereignty claims within the region, including Taiwan and the Spratly Islands.