China's Strategic Modernization: The Russian Connection - outfitting People's Liberation Army - Statistical Data Included

Parameters, Winter, 2001 by Michael J. Barron

This year's budget increase for the PLA largely confirmed what US security experts had heard about a debate in China over the 10th Five Year Plan that occurred in the spring of 1999 as the Kosovo campaign unfolded and China's embassy in Belgrade was hit by US missiles. The Ninth Five Year Plan, formulated in 1994, had set defense increases at about 10 percent per year, adjusted for inflation. The next five years are instead expected to bring increases of between 15 and 20 percent each year. (32) This means a dramatic increase as well in the money available for foreign military purchases.

Analysts believe that the Kosovo bombing campaign, in which air power and missiles forced Serbia's army out of Kosovo, was a major catalyst for the publicly announced budget increase, adding to the shock felt by the PLA after officers witnessed the weapons used in the Gulf War. The allied victory in Yugoslavia constituted a major part of the "drastic changes" enunciated by Xiang. (33)

Analysis of Russian Military Purchases: What Do They Portend?

The list of actual deliveries and the Sovremenny transfer yield valuable insights into the state of Chinese military modernization and the Chinese defense industry. First, the types of equipment purchases indicate the trends in doctrine, strategy, and force development the Chinese are pursuing. Air force and naval modernization has priority. After decades in a fundamentally defensive posture, China now very much desires a stronger military able to project force swiftly beyond its borders in order to defend its territorial claims in the South China Sea. Moreover, Beijing wants to be capable of projecting force within its current borders to deal with ethnic rebellion in frontier regions and worker or peasant unrest in China proper without outside interference. (34)

PRC Defense White Paper Provides Focus for Modernization

In the PRC White Paper on National Defense, issued in October 2000, the United States is seen as China's main threat and roadblock on the path to regional military supremacy and reunification with Taiwan. (35) The White Paper accused Washington of "practicing a new gunboat policy and neo-economic colonialism" and remarked that the plan to create a shield against missiles would seriously destabilize the security of the Asia-Pacific region. (36) This view has been reinforced recently in several key essays by senior PLA strategists. The Deputy Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Xiong Guangkai, wrote in a recent edition of China Strategic Studies, for instance, that the forces of "war, hegemony, and power politics are increasing." (37) Speaking on this latest announcement by the PRC, David Shambaugh, a specialist on the Chinese military at George Washington University and the Brookings Institution, stated, "This is a very bleak assessment of the global security environment." (38) Shambaugh said that over the past few years China has embarked on a military modernization program that puts the US military front and center as a potential adversary because Beijing believes that Washington opposes China's dream of reuniting with Taiwan. (39)