China's Strategic Modernization: The Russian Connection - outfitting People's Liberation Army - Statistical Data Included

Parameters, Winter, 2001 by Michael J. Barron

Without massive foreign assistance, the Chinese defense industry currently can produce, at best, equipment with technological levels equivalent only to that which the Soviet Union replaced in the 1980s. Most of today's Chinese defense industries will have to be retooled and their personnel taught new techniques to produce significant numbers of more modern equipment. Therefore it is probable that the most modem military equipment introduced into Chinese units in the near term and mid term will be of foreign origin.

The cost of equipping the entire PLA with modern equipment and revamping China's defense industries would be enormous. The international strategic situation, however, does not require China to make major changes in its allocation of resources between the civilian and military sectors at this time. In view of this situation, China's leaders have--until this most recent announcement of a defense spending increase--refrained from diverting the amount of investment necessary to change significantly the existing distribution of resources within the country. Beijing analysts have in the past justified this decision by using the fall of the Soviet Union as an example: the "Soviet Trap" was the disproportionate amount that Moscow spent on the Soviet military instead of on the civilian economy and is considered a primary reason for its eventual demise. (47)

While the current pace of Chinese military modernization will not pose a significant threat to modern militaries for some time to come, clearly China's smaller regional neighbors already are wary of Beijing's intentions and potential capabilities. No matter what the foreign perception, however, for the purpose of its own prestige and in the pursuit of its foreign policy objectives, China will seek to have a visible, standing force capable of deterring war and intimidating potential opponents. This reality calls for a strengthened policy of engagement with China by the United States.

Why the United States Should Engage More with China

Today China is, with the help of Russian arms and technology, increasing its military power in the Pacific. China is increasing its political and economic power as well, and this has led and will continue to lead to conflicts of interest with other powers in the region, especially the United States and Japan. This path poses special dangers for American security, but it also provides rich opportunities. A US policy of strengthened engagement is needed to help manage the US-China relationship so that it does not lead to military conflict, but instead serves to strengthen the present stability in the Asia-Pacific region. All nations of the Asia-Pacific region would like to see China play a positive and constructive role there.

As China rises from the introverted crouch of the Maoist period and becomes more powerful, it is defining a wider role and a new identity for itself in international security. China's emergence is the most portentous geostrategic development in America's westward vista, as important as, to the east, Russia's search for a post-Cold War security concept.