The effects of Korean unification on the US military presence in Northeast Asia

Parameters, Winter, 2002 by Carl B. Haselden, Jr.

Japan--The Linchpin of US Security in Asia

In Asia, Japan has the largest defense budget, the most modern forces, and the greatest economic resources devoted to force improvement. (21) Until recently, however, Japan has strictly adhered to its constitutional clause nine that prohibits it from having "normal" armed forces and allows for only self-defense forces. (22) Japan has relied on the US military to protect its interests and access to overseas markets, such as the sea lines of communication through the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and the Taiwan Strait. In exchange for regional security and stability, Japan has granted the United States basing rights in Okinawa and on the mainland of Japan. (23)

Domestic and international events, however, continue to pick at the US-Japan alliance. Japan has been under tremendous domestic pressure to reduce the US military presence on Okinawa, despite its strategic geographic location. (24) While the Japanese have placed some pressure on the United States with regard to Okinawa, the United States has responded with its own pressure on Japan. The United States has pushed for Japan to become a more "normal" nation and assume a greater role in regional and international security. Five external developments have created an impetus for Japan to move in this direction:

* The US diplomatic rift with Japan for providing primarily financial support to the coalition during Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm.

* The NKPA ballistic missile test over Japan in 1998 that demonstrated Japan's vulnerability to other countries.

* China's increased military spending and move to become a regional power with air and maritime capability. (25)

* The World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks in 2001, which underscored the significant danger posed by transnational threats.

* The sinking of a suspected North Korean vessel after an exchange of gunfire with the Japanese Coast Guard in December 2001. (26)

Any move by Japan toward normalcy would undoubtedly be portrayed by some in China and Korea as a reemergence of its militaristic past. Because of Japan's economic and technological capabilities, it has the capability to transform its military from a self-defense force into one capable of power projection. This transformation could be accomplished in a relatively short time. Although it is ultimately up to the Japanese to allay the concerns of their neighbors that Japan will not repeat its earlier transgressions against them, a continued US presence on Japan would go a long way in providing needed reassurance.

China--Facilitating Regional Stability or Instability?

The United States views China as the most significant long-term security concern in Northeast Asia. The Bush Administration has categorized China as "a competitor and a potential rival, but also a trading partner willing to cooperate in the areas, such as Korea, where strategic interests overlap." (27) The Administration states that China is not an enemy, and that its task is to keep China from becoming one. While the United States views China as having hegemonic aspirations within the region, the Chinese are equally concerned that the United States is pursuing a strategy of containment against them. China views the United States and Japan as the only two nations that could cause it major security concerns in Northeast Asia. However, China's top security priority appears to be focused internally; it seeks a stable international environment so it might focus on domestic issues and economic development. (28)