The effects of Korean unification on the US military presence in Northeast Asia

Parameters, Winter, 2002 by Carl B. Haselden, Jr.

China has increased its military spending, but as a historically land-based power, it has a long way to go to develop power projection capabilities. China lacks a blue-water navy, amphibious capability, aerial refueling assets, airborne early warning, and many of the other highly technological systems possessed by the United States and Japan. (29) At China's present rate of military transformation, it would probably be 2020 or later before China could effectively challenge the United States militarily.

China will be concerned about any US presence on Korea following reunification, especially if US forces are stationed above the 38th parallel. (30) While China does not have a vote on the future US military presence in Northeast Asia, the intentions of the United States and the ROK on continued US basing need to contain a degree of transparency in an effort to promote regional stability. (31) During the Korean War, China demonstrated its willingness to expend lives and national treasure to protect its interests.

Russia--A Player in Northeast Asia?

Russia's military capabilities in East Asia have declined significantly in recent years, but its land border with a unified Korea and its nuclear weapons capability mean it cannot be ignored. Russia's primary concern in Northeast Asia appears to be maintaining some type of influence over events affecting major policy decisions. (32) While the United States has been guilty of excluding Russia from diplomatic initiatives in the past, it is now seeing benefits in encouraging Russia to play an active role in the East Asia-Pacific security arena. (33)

Russia's influence and its ability to regain parity with China and Japan related to regional security matters depend to a large extent on its ability to deal with its own economic and political challenges. Until Russia fixes its internal problems, China and Japan will be the principal influences on the Korean peninsula. (34)

The Role of US Pacific Command

The former Commander of US Pacific Command, Admiral Dennis Blair, stated that whatever the future holds, it is in the best interests of the Republic of Korea and the United States to maintain a US presence on the Korean peninsula. (35) Korean and Japanese cooperation, not rivalry, is the key to obtaining long-term stability in Asia. (36) While Admiral Blair viewed North Korea as the biggest threat in his area of responsibility, he emphasized that Asia's regional stability also hinges on China. (37)

Under Admiral Blair's leadership, Pacific Command (PACOM) focused on trying to bring Asian countries to multilateralism while maintaining US bilateral relations. Only regional cooperation can defeat the transnational threats that pose the major security concerns of today and the future. While Asian nations have been slow to warm to the idea of multilateralism, the terrorists attacks of 11 September 2001 showed the necessity of nations working together regionally and globally to combat transnational threats. The 11 September events also highlighted the need for nations to work together using all elements of national power, posing the difficult task of coordinating diplomatic, economic, socio-psychological, and military actions to achieve success.