A prayer for Marie: creating an effective African standby force

Parameters, Winter, 2004 by Mike Denning

AIDS and National Security

The AIDS pandemic has a complex but important nexus to US national security. AIDS and warfare insatiably feed off each other--warfare is an amplifier of the disease, and the disease can create the conditions favorable for warfare. (10) The disease hollows out military capabilities, as well as state capacities in general, weakening both to the point of failure and collapse. For instance, estimates of HIV infection rates among African armies are as high as 50 percent in the Congo and Angola, 66 percent in Uganda, 75 percent in Malawi, and 80 percent in Zimbabwe. (11) This hollowing-out of militaries, particularly at the leadership level, has a number of added implications for security. As human capacity is lost, combat readiness deteriorates. Ultimately, AIDS-weakened militaries pose the risk of domestic instability and may even invite foreign attack.

AIDS threatens not only the military, but the whole state. As the disease spreads and becomes even more pervasive, it attacks the nation's fiber--individuals, families and communities, economic and political institutions, and police forces. The consequences can be shattering for already impoverished states. The World Bank considers AIDS to be the single biggest threat to economic development in Africa: the disease is expected to reduce GDP in many states by as much as 20 percent in the next decade. (12) This weakening of state bodies at points of crisis has repeatedly been the spark for coups, revolts, and other political and ethnic struggles to secure control over scarce resources--the precursor for a humanitarian crisis. As the collapse of the Democratic Republic of Congo--largely due to the AIDS epidemic--illustrates, warlords and other violent actors can move in to fill the void left by a failing state. (13) This becomes a direct threat to US national security when these failed states become havens for the new enemies of global order.

Economic Considerations

Africa potentially has important economic contributions to US security as it matures into an economic partner. The United States has economic investments throughout the region--by some measures, comparable to investments in the Middle East or Eastern Europe. (14) Additionally, Africa is a large and growing source of non-Gulf oil: currently the central/west African basin accounts for 17 percent of US oil imports. According to the National Intelligence Council, the United States is likely to draw 25 percent of its oil from West Africa by 2015, surpassing the volume imported from the Persian Gulf. (15) Plans call for an estimated $40 billion in new US private investment in the energy sector in Africa in the next few years, when production and imports in and from this region are expected to rise steadily.

Conversely, Africa's present economic plight is disheartening. Sub-Saharan Africa remains the world's poorest region, with a GDP per capita income of just $575 in 2002. (16) Additionally, Africa's autocratic governance and economic marginality pose a serious threat to US security interests. In the near to medium term, these vexing factors are expected to only worsen. In the midst of a global economic downturn aggravated by the aftermath of 9/11, the World Bank predicts the worst impact will be felt in Africa. (17) Programs like the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, targeted specifically at the Sub-Saharan region, are critical to stem this potential crisis.