Strategic realignment: ends, ways, and means in Iraq

Parameters, Winter, 2007 by Bruce J. Reider

But Iraq is not simply an insurgency. Unfortunately, many in positions of authority have developed a fixation with the term insurgency. The Sunni insurgency is only part of the problem in Iraq. The larger and more strategically critical challenge is the sectarian-based civil war. The Iraq Study Group concluded, "Sectarian conflict is the principal challenge to authority" in Iraq. (25) "Many Iraqis are embracing sectarian identities" and "sectarian violence causes the largest number of Iraqi civilian casualties." (26) Furthermore, "The composition of the Iraqi government is basically sectarian, and key players within the government too often act in their sectarian interest." (27) "The polity is marked by growing ethno-sectarianism in which Iraqis identify strictly with their own preferred, self-defined community and interpret events exclusively through an ethno-sectarian lens. The rushed constitutional process encouraged such polarization as Iraqis sought to maximize their political gains on the basis of group identity. The political process thereby has become a dangerous sociological process of affirmation of one's ethnic/sectarian identity." (28)

In his March 2007 after-action report, General McCaffrey stated, "Iraq is ripped by a low-grade civil war." (29) The presence of Coalition forces appears to be the only deterrent preventing the country from erupting in full-scale civil war.

What is a civil war and how does it differ from an insurgency? A civil war is a war between factions in the same country. A civil war is a struggle for power through conflict and violence. It has an internal focus. "The most scholarly definition (of civil war) has two main criteria. The first says that the warring groups must be from the same country and fighting for control of the political center, control over a separatist state, or to force a major change in policy. The second says that at least 1,000 people must have been killed, with at least 100 from each side." (30) The situation in Iraq certainly meets those two criteria. Whereas an insurgency focuses on overthrowing an established, constituted government or authority, civil war is a violent struggle between factions to determine who governs. "Whether we portray the problem as insurgency or low-level civil war, the antidote remains much the same: a strong, representative government that has a monopoly on the use of force." (31) Labeling the situation in Iraq an insurgency or a civil war is not merely a matter of semantics. "Experts say if Iraq qualifies as a civil war, then the standard counterinsurgency playbook ... is rendered ineffective." (32) Insurgency and civil war both require different strategic approaches for resolution. The complex nature of the conflict in Iraq necessitates a shift from a COIN-centric military strategy to an approach that addresses escalating sectarian violence and civil war as the main threats with the Sunni-based insurgency and counterterrorism operations against al Qaeda as supporting efforts. The solution in Iraq requires a political strategy that addresses not only the insurgency but also the sectarian-based civil war.