Analysis the Prophet way - TSM Notes - new military intelligence system for use by United States Army

Military Intelligence Professional Bulletin, Jan-March, 2002 by Kevin C. Peterson

Prophet is the U.S. Army's next generation, multispectrum, multi-discipline collection, jamming, processing, and reporting system. The Prophet system will be modular, scalable, deployable, and tailorable to address the full range of conflict required of the U.S. Army.

The initial version is the high-mobility multipurpose wheeled vehicle (HMMWV)-mounted Prophet system. Prophet also has a dismounted manpack capability, which is uniquely suitable for airborne insertion and early entry into the battlespace. Prophet's primary mission will be to provide around-the-clock, all weather, enhanced situational awareness and situational understanding to maneuver commanders in near-real time (NRT). It will do this through the detection, collection, and exploitation of radiofrequency (RF) emissions (Blocks I through V), as well as collected signatures and measurement data (Blocks IV and V). Prophet's secondary mission will be to provide an array of nonlethal technology (Blocks II, IV, and V), which will be able to interrupt, spoof, disrupt, or disable select target command and control (C2) nodes.

Prophet will consist of ground RF and measurement collection platforms that operate in direct support of the maneuver unit. The system will provide "niche" sensor coverage to support full-spectrum operations. Prophets "niche" coverage will provide reinforcing and NRT intelligence to tactical maneuver commanders under a variety of deployed configurations (division, brigade, regiment, task force, etc.). This intelligence will provide--

* Perceptive environmental surveys.

* Indications and warning.

* Location, tracking, and identification of hostile forces and equipment.

* Determination of enemy plans and intentions.

It will also serve to cross-cue other battlefield sensors (e.g., Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicle [TUAV], the Future Combat System of Systems [FCSS], and Firefinder radars), as well as to provide amplifying data to confirm indications and collection from other battlefield sensors.

Prophet disseminates intelligence information on the battlefield through a Prophet control (PC) element collocated with the brigade tactical operations center (TOC). PCs will perform emitter mapping and nodal analysis on Prophet-derived intelligence, and then forward timely and accurate targeting information, intelligence products, and predictions on probable enemy courses of action to the brigade commander. The Prophet control element will provide reports to higher echelons using standard, digital reporting formats and voice reporting functionality. Envisioned to operate at the Secret collateral level only, PC will provide [C.sup.2] and technical steerage to Prophet systems and receive situational updates and supplementary tasking from higher echelons. We will field each set of Prophets with a PC operated by four soldiers: two signals intelligence (SIGINT) Analysts (military occupational specialty [MOS] 98C) and two Communications Intercept/Locators (MOS 98H).

Since the Prophet program design is for a five-block, acquisition strategy program, PC will include follow-on block preplanned product improvements ([P.sup.3]Ls) over the next five years. The initial phase PC will only consist of automation and communications equipment. Two All-Source Analysis System-Light (ASAS-L) workstations will complement the PC. ASAS-L workstations connected through a local-area network (LAN) will provide a distributed processing environment for accessing and managing intelligence data and information. These workstations will host a core set of common applications, services, and tools that appropriate intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) sensor planning, management, and presentation software can augment or update. This software tool set will--

* Enable analysts to research and determine traffic densities and network structures.

* Locate emitters.

* Display historical trends in electronic order of battle (EOB).

* Produce tactical, multiple intelligence discipline ("multi-INT") reports.

These tools will also assist the operator in interrogation and the retrieval, processing, and correlation of intelligence information from multi-INT databases. Operators will use these workstations to receive and process Prophet's digital intelligence reports and to provide technical tasking.

As we add the [P.sup.3]L upgrades, PC will migrate into a multi-INT processing role and possess the capability to conduct operations mounted onboard a single vehicle. The PC vehicle will have a small but capable analysis, control, and technical steerage ability. This capability will permit system operators to receive large amounts of incoming data-- such as lines-of-bearing (LOBs) and measurement and signature data from seismic, acoustic, or infrared sensors--and efficiently fuse this data with non-Prophet sensor data, such as moving target indicator data from the Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System (Joint STARS). Prophet analysts will be able to convert the "blobology" of undefined data intersects into solid identifications, verified by fusing target matches in and across several databases.