Al-Qaeda threat to oil industry and U.S. Allies

Military Intelligence Professional Bulletin, Oct-Dec, 2003 by Ben N. Venzke, Aimee Ibrahim

ASSESSMENT

Attacks during the past seven months against the Germans in Tunisia; French in Pakistan and Yemen; and Australians in Indonesia have illustrated al-Qaeda's current primary focus on targeting the major allies of the United States (U.S.) in its campaign in Afghanistan. While there have been attacks against U.S. forces in Kuwait and the Philippines, it is our opinion that the current primary focus is U.S. allies.

On 9 October 2002. Ayman al-Zawahiri said in a newly released video, "We have sent some messages to the allies of America so that they may stop their involvement in its Crusade. The mujahideen youth nave issued messages to Germany and another one to France. So if this is not enough, then we are prepared to increase it by the help of Allah." This current focus does not, however, alleviate the threat against U.S. interests either within U.S. borders or abroad.

It is our strong opinion that long-term pre-11 September 2001 plans for another major attack designed to match or supersede the 11 September 2001 attack will be executed when al-Qaeda believes it is most advantageous to do so. An assessment on the most likely window for such an attack within the continental United States (CONUS) is included at the end of this report.

Without addressing threats to U.S. targets, we believe there exists a significant threat of additional attacks against the oil industry as well as U.S. allies. Specifically:

[] Tankers transiting oil shipping lanes, particularly the Arabian Gulf and Horn of Africa areas, are under a high risk of attack. The threat from al-Qaeda is not limited to shipping lanes but also includes ports, loading/off-loading facilities and even support infrastructure located inland. This is emphasized in the 13 October 2002 statement from al-Qaeda's Political Bureau which said. "The operation of attacking the French oil tanker is not merely an attack against a tanker--it is an attack against international oil transport lines and all its various connotations."

[] German, French and Australian interests both within and outside their geographical borders will remain threatened. However, we believe that an even greater risk exists to U.S. allies not previously attacked, such as the United Kingdom (UK) and Canada. While arguments within the Islamic extremist community exist against targeting countries such as the UK, it cannot be presumed that this position will dominate the debate. There also exists a significant threat to Saudi and Jordanian interests.

Note on Dual-Purpose Targeting:

The three attacks against U.S. allies have all served dual targeting interests (i.e. Germany/synagogue, France/oil, Australia/tourism). It can be expected that al-Qaeda will continue to seek dual-purpose targets whenever possible.

Note on Afghanistan and Pakistan:

Over the course of the past 10 months there has been a steady stream of al-Qaeda-affiliated attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan against U.S. and allied interests. Due to the political environment in these two countries, those operations have been excluded from consideration in this assessment. However, the 8 May 2002 bombing operation in Karachi, Pakistan, which resulted in the death of a number of French nationals, may be considered as another significant operation against a U.S. ally if it is concluded that the prime target was the group of French nationals, rather than the Sheraton Hotel.

ATTACKS AGAINST U.S. ALLIES

Australia

Around 2330 local time on 12 October 2002, two suspected car bombs detonated next to the Sari Club and other nightlife establishments on Kuta Beach in Bali, Indonesia. At least 187 people were killed and at least 300 injured. The majority of the victims were Australians and other foreign nationals.

Germany

On 11 April 2002, al-Qaeda member Nizar Sayf-al-Din crashed a fuel tanker into the Ghriba Synagogue in Djerba, Tunisia. Nineteen people were killed, including 14 German tourists.

France

On 8 May 2002, a car bomb in Karachi, Pakistan, detonated next to a bus carrying French naval engineers. Fifteen people were killed, including 11 of the French engineers. Al-Qaeda is suspected of being involved in the attack.

On 6 October 2002, a boat packed with explosives rammed into the French-owned tanker Limburg as it headed into the port of Ash Shihr at Mukallah, Yemen, to bring on more oil. The crew abandoned ship at 1200 local time [0900 Greenwich Mean Time [GMT]) when they were unable to put out the ensuing fire after the blast.

The ship is managed by the French Ship Management Company and owned by Euronav. France Ship Managing Director Peter Raes stated: "A junior officer saw a craft approaching the Limburg. He was of the opinion that we touched that craft and then there was an explosion." Raes went on to say that the ship, which was built in 2000, is a double-hulled tanker that was barely moving at the time of the explosion. He said the blast/impact penetrated through both hulls and 7 to 8 meters into the cargo hold filled with crude oil. One member of the crew was killed. The ship lost 90,000 gallons of oil after the blast. According to a 10 October 2002 report in Asharq al-Awsat, the newspaper received a statement from the Aden-Abyan Islamic Army claiming responsibility for the attack.