Air Force Weather focused on operations

Flying Safety, Oct, 2004 by Thomas Stickford

In June 2004, Air Force Weather's (AFW) integral role in US Air Force operations was reaffirmed. As part of a Deputy Chief of Staff for Air and Space Operations reorganization within Headquarters Air Force, AFW and its Field Operating Agency, the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), were realigned under the Directorate of Operations and Training led by Maj Gen Marne Peterson. This move underscores AFW's mission: to maximize warfighting and homeland defense capabilities, enhance flight safety, optimize training effectiveness, and safeguard weather-sensitive resources for the Air Force, Army, and a variety of US government departments and agencies.

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

For the last year, I've had the unique opportunity to be your Director of Weather, and as a career aviator, it's been a real eye-opener to "sit" on the other side of the weather counter. In fact, I can't say enough about the dedication and competence of the over 4400 men and women of AFW making the process happen for our nation. It's a process worthy of every aviator's attention, and knowing this process will make you a better decision-maker, whether that decision is for one aircraft or for the entire Air Force.

Forecasting Starts With Collecting Information

The first and most important step in the process is the Collection of terrestrial and space weather data. The basic facts of current wind speed and direction, temperature, atmospheric pressure, cloud types, sun spot intensity, etc., are the "atoms" upon which a weather forecast is built. This is not new. Benjamin Franklin and Thomas Jefferson were ardent collectors of daily weather observations. When all is said and done, weather people are managers of data--lots of data. The interpretation of all this data is what makes weather forecasting a science.

Data collection is literally a worldwide effort. Right now, AFW folks embedded in Air Force and Army units are collecting weather observations in every theater of operations. Sixty years ago, military weather observers took part in the D-Day landings; today, AFW battlefield Airmen have earned Purple Hearts in SWA. We also have AFW forecasters located on a mountain in Hawaii and in the desert of Australia collecting information from beyond the atmosphere to the core of the sun. Most importantly, at nearly every airfield, our "eyes forward" are watching and collecting information on the state of the atmosphere around the base. Not surprisingly, with observations being taken across the globe, communications play a big role. All observations get routed to AFWA, AFW's strategic weather center at Offutt AFB. Consequently, AFW absolutely depends on the skill of its communications technicians to keep data moving.

Up until the last decade, the business of weather observing was done solely by human eyes. With the advent of automated weather observing systems, there has been an explosion of data available. Commercial aircraft now collect up to 30,000 daily observations of the upper atmosphere around the United States, as well as in other locations around the globe. In addition, an expanding aviation presence in the world means more pilot reports (PIREPs). Here's where you can add value to the process. PIREPs help forecasters assess how well a computer model is performing, and impact the resultant accuracy of the man-in-the-loop forecast. So, please take a few minutes to call in a PIREP whenever you can.

In addition to these atmospheric observations, solar observatories and satellites provide continuous streams of data. Moreover, the newest sensors being deployed at our Air Force bases and Army posts are so capable that our dependence on human observations is declining, allowing our folks to focus on weather for all aspects of the mission, including takeoff, ingress, time over target, egress, and landing. With more and more data available to work with, AFW can better assess the current state of the atmosphere, leading to a better forecast.

Analysis Tells Us Where We Are

The second step in the forecasting process is the Analysis phase. Here, automated processes at AFWA help "connect the dots" between the various data elements, creating a picture of the current state-of-the-atmosphere and state-of-the-sun. Analysis also takes place at the Air Force Combat Climatology Center (AFCCC) in North Carolina. AFCCC accumulates data for thousands of locations in countries throughout the world, expertly assessing it to determine each location's averages and extremes over a long period of time. The resulting climatology is a vital, yet often overlooked planning tool. For instance, climatology should be consulted when deciding on personnel or equipment bed-down locations (e.g., should troops bring cold weather gear? Will we need additional water due to extreme heat?).

Climatology can also be exploited to establish the best time of year to conduct a particular aspect of flight training or to determine when to launch an operation with expected weather conditions that favor US forces over an adversary. Since climatology can be misinterpreted, be sure to consult your local weather experts whenever you use it. Just be sure you do use it!