Air Force Weather reengineering: a final report top the warfighter

Flying Safety, May, 2003 by David L. Johnson

In October 2001, I reported in Flying Safety on our progress at reengineering the way we do business. Our goal in this effort was to become a leaner and more efficient force for your global environmental situation information. Today, I'm happy to report that we are there. You should expect better forecasting accuracy and better point weather warnings for the protection of your resources from the Air Force Weather team.

REENGINEERING FOR A TEAM FORECAST

Almost everyone (a few exceptions are being worked) now gets a weather forecast produced by a team effort. On that forecast are the fingerprints from many different individuals at several organizations.

The forecast at your airbase began with data and weather observations col-lected by the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) form many sources--everything from satellites to your base's Combat Weather Team (CWT). AFWA's computing center--one of the largest in the world-processed that data to produce the global and hemispherical products you see today. But those big-picture products don't have the temporal or positional resolution to help you plan for tomorrow's takeoff or target run. For that, we turn to our regional Operational Weather Squadrons (OWS).

Eight OWSs worldwide provide the regional modeling capability and exper-tise to produce the weather products that will help you plan your next mission. Teams of experts in the OWS create the Terminal Aerodrome Forecst (TAFs) for your base. We take advantage of this effort to provide great on-the-job training (OJT) for recent graduates from the initial skills schoolhouse. But the experts in the OWS need the input of their "eyes-forward" and local base experts, your CWT members, to make it the product you expect.

When weather is complex and changing rapidly, your CWT personnel provide the kind of details about local conditions and topography that will create a reliable forecast. Our policy is that the forecast released by the OWS is jointly owned between the OWS and the CWT, so you should never hear talk about "us" and "them" from your local weather provider.

Your CWT adds value by understanding your mission and the kinds of specific products you require to get the job done. Because they work where and when you work, they know the kind of specific data you want, in the form you want it, for the exact time that you need it.

This is your weather process from beginning to end, so we are giving you only well-trained personnel who can help you get exactly what you want and need. The initial skill course graduate spends two years in an OWS learning and becoming a 5-level before being assigned to your CWT at the base level. That way, they know the skill and the art, they know the OWS, and they know the strengths and weaknesses of the models and products before they come to advise you and provide you with a mission execution forecast.

REENGINEERING FOR WEATHER WARNINGS

As a former flying Wing Commander, I know how important resource protection is to get the job done. As we've reengineered the way we business, we've worked to give you the best in 24/7 coverage to help you know when severe weather is on the way.

Before reengineering, the local base weather station was responsible for your warnings. We tried to have weather radars--the key to providing commanders with environmental situational awareness--available in most bases. Some bases used them a lot and some only rarely and the result of this was inconsistent forecasting. Sometimes, people knowledgeable in local weather were not outside assessing the storm, they were inside with their faces in a radar screen. As base-level weather manpower has been decreased, they can't provide 24/7 coverage for very long, so we are staffing the OWS to be your 24/7 provider.

The OWS has a number of advantages over the local CWT. As mentioned, the OWS has the staff to do it around the clock, every day. Secondly, the OWSs have the real experts in radar "knobology" and upgraded equipment, providing a center where the analysis can be done.

We are increasing the requirements on our people and processes. Rather than give you only one hour's notice, we've increased the requirement to two hours of warning for many significant hazards. Commanders always have the option of settling for less warning, but most agree that the extra hour's notice is a great benefit of AFW reengineering.

One final note: Beyond the weather warnings for resource protection, instead of grading ourselves in macro categories like IFR, VFR, etc., Air Force Weather will forecast what the ceiling, visibility, winds and precipitation will be. Metrics will gauge deviations by the knot and degree, by 100-foot intervals for ceiling and by 10-degree azimuth segments. This will result in better tools for the weather career field to improve timeliness and accuracy, and better forecasts for your mission execution, forecasts.

It has been a long road to reengineer AFW to meet the needs of the Air Force and Army. Over the last three years, we've seen operational result that confirm the reengineered approach in combat. I'm proud now to organize, train and equip the folks who provide environmental situational awareness for you it takes a team effort by AFWA, the Weather Squadrons and your Combat Weather Team to make this work. The weather team should be giving you the best forecasting and warning capability available. If not then I want to know about it!