What Happens next?

Flying Safety, July, 2001 by Kerry L.Tidmore

My instructor seemed to have the whole process figured out very clearly.

Risk. Just like taxes, it's virtually inescapable. Risk surrounds us everywhere we go, even in the peace and sanctity of our own backyard barbecues with our friends or in the (so-called) safety of our homes. Although we can reduce the risk that we are exposed to in most situations, the bottom line is that risk is inherent in all operations. Whether we're flying an instrument approach to a strange field in the weather and at night, or simply making the mistake of shopping at the commissary on payday, we accept some degree of risk at all times in our everyday lives.

So, how do we control this risk that we encounter, voluntarily or involuntarily? Well, most people have been doing some type of risk management since a very early age and probably didn't even realize it. I can still remember my first formal lesson in risk management from years ago. My instructor seemed to have the whole process figured out very clearly. In fact, all of you were enrolled in the same course at one time or another. Who was the instructor who was able to lecture on just about any topic? You guessed it; I'm talking about Mother. Even now, after flying airplanes for more than 15 years and attending several formal and informal schools on flying, aviation concepts, and related safety programs, I still use the risk management assessment process my mother gave me at a very early age. The process is uniquely simple yet ultimately efficient: "What Happens Next?" The USAF commonly refers to Mom's process as the "Scenario," or "What If Process," where you take proposed actions in a particular situation, pr oject them forward to a logical conclusion, and then look at the outcome and determine if it's desirable, and if the benefit outweighs the cost. Bang! Without even knowing it, we've just applied ORM principles.

The Air Force adopted the ORM concept as a tool for its members to use in reducing risk in all aspects of life, both on and off duty. The basis of ORM is the understanding that risk is inherent in all operations but that risk can also be controlled. As a primary jet instructor for three years teaching the Air Force's newest aviators in many high-risk categories of flight (i.e., advanced aerobatics, instruments, low-level, and formation), I always tried to impress upon my students the importance of adopting their own internal risk management policy. This policy for conducting ourselves in the employment of our machines is kind of a "go/no-go" philosophy that takes into account the time-critical nature of most of the decisions we make in flight. It includes simple things like the "what if" policy: "How will the safety report read if something goes wrong?" or "Could I perform this maneuver or flight in good conscience with an examiner or my commander on board?" These are all examples of ORM in action, and stem f rom concepts of ORM that anyone can use anywhere, on or off duty.

In an effort to simplify the current six-step process of Air Force ORM and foster a greater understanding and use by members, Air Combat Command adopted a three-step process to be used in addition to the established six-step process. The new "hip pocket" process is designed to increase understanding and retention of ORM principles and, therefore, help incorporate the ORM culture into our everyday tasks. The new process is known as A...C...T:

Assess environment for risk...

* Be aware of your surroundings, duties, tasks, etc., on and off duty

* Analyze what could go wrong.

* What are the chances of something happening?

Consider options to limit risk...

* What can you do about it?

* Is it worth the risk to do it?

* Does the risk require you to elevate the decision-making process?

Take appropriate action...

* Implement risk controls (take preventive action).

* Does your action control the risk? If not, start the process again.

* Spread the word! Let others learn from your experience.

As military members and defenders of this great country, we are always at increased risk. Therefore, our adoption of these basic principles both on and off duty can only help us detect, assess and control risk while enhancing performance and maximizing our combat capabilities. Remember the bottom line:

Accept no unnecessary risk.

ORM is a logic-based, common sense approach to decision-making that can be used in a split-second, or employed by a group over time. It's a necessary tool that should be utilized by everyone in some shape or form, and passed on to our newest Air Force members.

And by the way, if you had the same person I did as your first risk management principles instructor, give her a call and thank her today.