Report from NFOEC 2001

Fiber Optics Business, August 31, 2001

The National Fiber Optics Engineer Conference (NFOEC) opened on July 8, 2001 at the Baltimore Convention Center and ran through July 12, with attendance exceeding organizers' expectations. At the beginning of the NFOEC conference and exhibits, the organizers (Telecordia) were estimating an attendance of greater than 8,000. The actual attendance as of July 11 was 9,278. Of these, 5,129 were conference attendees. Needless to say, the organizers were pleased. The 2002 event will be held September 15-19, in Dallas, TX. Seventy-eight percent of this year's exhibitors have signed up. There will not be space constraints in Dallas, as Telecordia has contracted for one million square feet of exhibit space. Some highlights of this year's event are below.

NFOEC 2001 Opens On Optimistic Note

Despite the recent down turn in the telecommunications industry, the optical network suppliers still remain upbeat concerning the industry future. Each of the four keynote speakers sang the same tune about the continued growth of the industry driven by data or the internet.

They also berated industry analysts and the press for the coverage on the "Fiber Glut," which they claimed was a bogus argument based on the amount of dark fiber in the ground. They likened this argument to the "lack of need for micro processes because of the large amount of sand available."

Attendance at this year NFOEC was forecasted to be only 20 percent less than 2000.

The first day of NEOEC consisted of five keynote addresses and the exhibits. (This is the only trade show that shuts down their technical program so exhibits can have the full attention of the attendees.) Gregg Mumford, President of Nortel Optical Networks, Mathew Brass, Senior Vice President and CTO of Williams Communications, David Huber, CEO of Corvis Corp., and Harry Carr, CEO of Tellium gave keynote addresses.

High-Performance Internet Tackling Communications, Innovation, and Exploration Gregg Mumford, President of Nortel Optical Networks

Gregg Mumford presented an upbeat assessment of the optical network market, which will continue to be driven by a wide range of applications yet to reach fruition. He claimed that the Internet is just the tip of the iceberg for bandwidth demand and improved carrier profitability. He quoted from a recent JP Morgan and McKenzie study that the Internet will grow 88 percent from 2001-2005.

The networks he claimed involved three main areas: (1) Photonics infrastructure (2) IP and Optical networks and (3) Intelligence throughout the network. Even though he sited these three areas, the one that stood out was "IP and optical networks," which brought together the best of all worlds. Ethernet and optical networks provide simple, fast, scalable, reliable and low-cost transmission in the access, metro and WAN networks.

Mumford cited two examples of the future applications, which will require large amounts of bandwidth:

- Tele-immersion: One could walk into a room and it would appear to be filled with a number of people who in reality could be thousands of miles away. Each cable required for such an application would require 2.5 Gbps.

- Ocean Exploration: Ocean researchers claim that although the water covers 71 percent of the global surface, only 1 percent is explored! An underwater fiber optics network of sensors could be used to explore the other 99 percent and make a major impact on our understanding of the environment. Matthew Bross, Senior Vice President and Chief technical Officer Williams Communications

Matt Brass presented an entertaining view of Williams on the impact of innovation on the strategy in developing and continuing to evolve their networks. He refuted the claim of a "Fiber Glut" by using 14 years of FCC data on the cost of switched traffic to show the elasticity of demand was a factor of 3. Thus, for each 1 percent decrease in cost there was a 3 percent increase in traffic. An interesting insight was provided by Bross on Williams' analysis of future network growth. He showed a graph of the rate of innovation of optronics. Around 1999 there was a cross over the optronics curve over the fiber curve, which was relatively flat but the optics curve has grown exponentially. This, he claimed, was their reason for selecting a relatively short repeater spacing of 45km and reliance on DWDM growth for fiber.

Bross ended his talk with a discussion on how Williams set up a farm system similar to that of a baseball team to evaluate and develop technology. Rather than evaluate two or three companies products in a lab for speed and power consumption, the technology farm system could evaluate all technologies from all vendors big and small. He claimed that in the last 18 months, they had evaluated 750 technologies.

Express Network: Optical Networks and New Business Models for Terabit Carrier Success David Huber, CEO, Corvis Corp.

David Huber, CEO of Corvis Corp., proposed an "optical express network" for the network core. This would be an all-optical network with no electronics. He developed a graphical assessment starting with the existing SONET-based network and showed how it was inadequate for data. In support of his argument, he frequently referred to an article in a recent issue of Forbes that reviewed, from a carrier's s perspective, the problems with the existing networks. He also proposed that there would be no grooming at the core, it would be done at the edge. On the issue of cost reduction, he believes the SONET network of tomorrow must be 20 percent of today's cost.