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International Social Science Review, Fall-Winter, 2003 by Daniel Skidmore-Hess

Introduction

The 2001 elections represent a watershed in Danish electoral politics. (1) In every national election from 1924 through 1998, the Social Democrats emerged as the strongest party in terms of both popular support and parliamentary representation. (2) From 1924 to 2001, Social Democrats held the prime ministerial office for forty-eight of the seventy-two years that Denmark was unoccupied by a foreign invader. (3) The Social Democratic vote of 29.1% in 2001 represents the party's lowest level of electoral support since the "political earthquake" of the 1973 elections. That year, the Social Democratic party garnered only 25.6% of the total vote. (4) Then, as now, the fall of the Social Democrats' vote was associated with the rise of new right-wing forces in Danish politics. In 1973, however, the Social Democrats remained Denmark's largest and "natural party of government." (5)

In 2001, Denmark's Liberal party gained a narrow plurality over the long-dominant Social Democrats (see Table 1). After the election, the Liberals formed a new minority coalition government with the Conservatives. (6) The new government depends on the parliamentary support of the anti-immigrant Danish People's party, yet it is extremely unlikely that this party would be offered cabinet representation in any foreseeable circumstances. (7) The change of government could lead to a new free-market oriented direction in tax, social spending, and labor market policies. (8) But the most controversial campaign issue proved to be immigration, which, in response to fight-wing pressure, the mainstream parties, including the Social Democrats, promised to curtail. (9)

Denmark's Parliamentary Parties (11)

To better understand the narrative and analysis of the 2001 parliamentary election in Denmark that follows, a brief guide to Denmark's parliamentary parties is offered here. The Liberals represent one of the four "old parties" of the Danish political system. Although historically an agrarian party, today it is strongly pro-European Union (EU) and free-market oriented. The Liberals appear to have profited in electoral terms from anti-immigrant sentiment. Sharper restrictions on immigration, however, are not supported by Danish business interests, which may rely upon the continued availability of lower-skilled workers. While immigration was the major issue of the campaign, it is likely that tax reduction is a goal of greater interest to party leadership and its core constituents. Given the need for fiscal orthodoxy in order to maintain currency stability vis-a-vis the EU, tax cuts will be limited by the minority government's ability to make less popular cuts in public spending. (12)

Long the leading party of Denmark, but never holding an electoral majority, the Social Democrats may be perceived as the establishment. Historically, this is the party of labor and the primary architect of one of the most advanced welfare states. (13) In recent years, the party's base is found in the public sector as many private sector wage earners have shifted their political allegiance to the Liberals or the Danish People's party. (14) During the 2001 electoral campaign, the Social Democrats adopted anti-immigrant rhetoric that was both unconvincing in light of its policies in government and unseemly within the context of the party's socially liberal ideology. The Social Democrats are pro-EU and have long maintained a comfortable relationship with the more progressive elements of the Danish business community. (15)

The Danish People's party, currently the third largest party in the Danish electorate and parliament (Folketing), is most strongly identified with its anti-immigrant, "Denmark for Danes" agenda. The party is also decidedly anti-EU but pro-welfare state. Early indications are that the Danish People's party will not necessarily acquiesce to the Liberal-Conservative minority government's efforts to curb social spending. (16)

Traditionally the party of industry and protectionism, the Conservatives, one of the "old parties," are the junior coalition partner in the current government. The Conservatives' program is similar to that of the Liberals, especially concerning the EU and the general lines of economic and fiscal policy. (17)

In the late 1950s, the Socialist People's party emerged from an anti-Stalinist wing of the Danish Communist party with an ideological commitment to democratic socialism that anticipated the Eurocommunism movement of the 1970s and 1980s. This party has successfully incorporated "new left" elements (feminism, ecology) into its program and appears entrenched in the Danish political system as the major force to the left of the social democratic-liberal establishment. The Socialist People's party is Euro-skeptical but not so starkly anti-EU as parties of the far left and right. Although the Socialist People's party has acted as a parliamentary support party (Stotteparti) for the Social Democrats, it has not assumed the role of a junior coalition partner, and, thus, has never held any cabinet offices. (18)