Beyond the base: competing in the most diverse statewide race ever, Democratic Senate hopefuls face a primary free-for-all. And no one has a dependable bloc of votes

Chicago Reporter, The, Feb, 2004 by Mick Dumke

Eeryone on the 7900 block of South Dorchester Avenue knows Kim Gilmore. Now 41, Gilmore grew up in a home around the corner, and still lives in the neighborhood. On weekdays he's a deputy bureau chief with the Cook County human resources department, but on nights and weekends he's a precinct captain, knocking on doors for the 8th Ward Regular Democratic Organization.

Armed with a clipboard and pen, Gilmore stood on the front porch of Merties Smith's brick bungalow on a January day and asked her if she'd heard anything about the March 16 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

"A little bit," she said. A 40-year resident of the neighborhood, Smith was used to Gilmore dropping by to talk about the politics of the mostly middle-class, African American ward; they laughed and chatted, and she referred to him as "one of my children."

But Smith didn't have much to say about his favored candidate, Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes, an heir to the party's Irish base, who had turned to Gilmore's ward boss, Cook County Board President John H. Stroger Jr., for help in the black community. Instead, she was interested in Barack Obama, a state senator whose district lies just to the north. "He's an independent black person, and I would vote for him," she explained.

As Gilmore moved down the street, he was offered a different view at just about every stop. A few doors south, a man said be was torn between "Obyama," as he pronounced it, because he was "local," and multimillionaire financial trader Blair Hull, who is white, because "he's got the dineros. I like somebody spending his own damn money instead of mine. He'll be more independent."

Some people couldn't name any of the seven Democrats running, while others made it clear that neither race nor money would have anything to do with their votes. When Gilmore reached the home of Iris Bailey Howell and her husband, Daniel, he was ushered inside. Bailey Howell, who serves as the block club president, told him she knew very little about the candidates, though she recognized the names of Hynes, Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas and Gery Chico, the former Chicago school board president. And she was familiar with Obama, but not impressed, and she wasn't sure he was the best person to represent her as a black voter. "We always thought he had money, so he didn't have to come out to the community," she said.

Gilmore was happy to agree. Out on the sidewalk, he was optimistic about Hynes' chances. In a couple of weeks, Gilmore said, he would begin a "literature blitz," and he believed more people would openly support Hynes when they saw photos of him with Stroger.

Still, Gilmore wasn't sure what to expect. He admitted that, if Obama got his name out, 8th Ward voters might go with him. Hull's massive spending on advertisements could also siphon off black voters, he said. So could the name recognition of Pappas, who is of Greek heritage, and Chico, a Latino, since both are well-regarded in the community. And who could say how the long-shot candidates--radio talk show host Nancy Skinner, an exuberant white liberal, and health care executive Joyce Washington, who is African American--might shake it up?

Although he strongly believes in Hynes, Gilmore said, "this is the freest I've seen everyone act. Everyone's aligning with who they want to.... It's almost like a free-for-all out there."

Across the state, analysts, elected officials and the campaigns themselves are reaching the same conclusion. It is the first time that more than one viable nonwhite candidate has squared off in a statewide race. And, with two white ethnic insiders and a first-time, multimillionaire candidate also on the ballot, the old victory formula--mobilize your key base and cut into your opponents'--has never been more complicated.

"I've never seen this many people from within the party structure running for the same office. You've got everybody running," said Joseph Berrios, a Cook County Board of Review commissioner and the Democratic committeeman of the Northwest Side's 31st Ward.

Convention requires candidates to claim no group of voters gets special attention, but political players say that, as always, every campaign has identified groups it has to mobilize, and they're mostly defined by race and class. But, because of the number and range of candidates this time, each demographic can split several ways, and none has been written off.

"This thing is so fluid, you won't be able to tell what's happening until Election Night," said Roland W. Burris, the state's first African American comptroller and attorney general, who lost Democratic primaries for governor in 1994, 1998 and 2002. "They've all got to firm their bases up, and then go out and make others believe they can help them."

Berrios said he doesn't know of any racial or ethnic community whose leaders aren't split among several candidates. "I've talked to a lot of guys who are wavering in their choices," said Berrios.

"We're all over the place."

Early polls suggest voters are no more certain. In January, a Chicago Tribune/WGN poll found Hynes, Obama and Pappas tied for the lead, with Hull trailing by a statistically insignificant margin and Chico not far behind. But nearly 40 percent of Democrats were undecided. In such a tight contest, the candidates recognize that every greeting offered in a train station, every flyer handed out in an apartment vestibule and every contribution to a ward organization has heightened importance, offering the possibility of reaching the few voters who could make the difference.