Realized potential or lost talent: high school variables and bachelor's degree completion

Career Development Quarterly, Sept, 2004 by Jerry Trusty, Spencer G. Niles

This study examined how background and high school variables affected participants in either realizing their potential by completing a bachelor's degree or experiencing lost talent by not completing a bachelor's degree. A sample of participants who had demonstrated above average cognitive ability and had high postsecondary educational goals when in 8th grade was selected from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (national longitudinal data from 1988 to 2000; National Education, 2002). Several background and high school variables had strong effects on degree completion. Results were used to develop the Realized Potential or Lost Talent model. Implications for helping young people in their educational-career development are included.

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Attainment of a bachelor's degree has increased in importance over the last several years. With regard to personal economic rewards, the earnings gap between those with and without bachelor's degrees has steadily widened over the last 3 decades (Wirt et al., 2000). With regard to occupational goals, a bachelor's degree is necessary for entry into many professional fields, and failure to complete a bachelor's degree forces career foreclosure on many individuals. In addition, projections show continued growth in occupations for which a bachelor's degree is required (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2001). According to Adelman (1999), bachelor's degree attainment has gained increasing attention from government and policy perspectives, and bachelor's degree completion rates have become the accountability standard for higher education institutions.

Young people seem to have responded to these economic, career, and sociopolitical realities. An increasing percentage of U.S. young people expect to attain bachelor's degrees and work in professional occupations (Rasinski, Ingels, Rock, Pollack, & Wu, 1993; Wirt et al., 2002). Wirt and colleagues reported that over the last 30 years, the percentage of young people who enter college soon after high school graduation has steadily increased. In the late 1990s, more than 60% of high school graduates were enrolled in college by the next academic year. Parents, high school counselors, and high school teachers have also changed their views on postsecondary education. Rasinski and colleagues investigated the advice that adults provide to young people regarding college attendance, comparing responses of 1980 high school sophomores to those of 1990 sophomores. Students in 1990 were much more likely to report that parents, school counselors, and teachers recommended that they attend college.

Bachelor's degree completion rates have risen over the last several years, with women showing the largest increases. Increases have also been evident for all U.S. racial-ethnic groups; however, the percentages of young Latinos and African Americans who have completed a bachelor's degree remain considerably lower than the percentage for Whites (Wirt et al., 2002). Despite the social, political, economic, and career importance of bachelor's degree completion, there are surprisingly few studies of this outcome (Adelman, 1999).

The purpose of the present study was to examine the effects of back-ground variables and high school variables on realized potential versus lost talent. Data used were from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88; National Education, 2002), which followed students for 12 years. All participants in our sample scored above the mean on reading and math cognitive ability tests when they were in the eighth grade. At the same time, all participants also reported expecting to attain a bachelor's degree. Therefore, completing the bachelor's degree for this group of participants with early talent and high early expectations signifies realized potential. Inversely, not completing the bachelor's signifies lost talent. Independent variables specified for the present study were from Trusty's (2004) Long-Term Educational Development (LTED) model. The LTED model was developed with a sample of college-attending students of all cognitive ability levels. In contrast, studies of lost talent (Hanson, 1994; Trusty & Harris, 1999) are done with samples of young people who have above average levels of cognitive ability and plans for college. Therefore, lost talent models are qualitatively different in the cognitive ability dimension. Our purpose was to develop a model specific to the process of realized potential or lost talent.

Literature Review

The LTED Model

The guiding model for the present study, Trusty's (2004) LTED model, is depicted in Figure 1. The particular sample with which this model was developed was U.S. young people who (a) had started their postsecondary education within 2 years of graduating high school and (b) were attending college for the purpose of obtaining a bachelor's degree. Therefore, the LTED model is a general model of long-term educational development for U.S. young people who actively pursue bachelor's degrees.