The Chaos Theory of Careers: a user's guide

Career Development Quarterly, June, 2005 by Jim E.H. Bright, Robert G.L. Pryor

Stacey et al. (2000) argued that chaotic systems are predictable at the global or macro level, but only in qualitative terms. In the short term, they argued, short-range, micro-level predictions might be possible, but these will have little or no bearing on long-range predictions. In Scenario 3, in order to make accurate long-range predictions, it would be necessary to measure the effect of every minor alteration of the initial state of the person, the treadmill, the fans, the outside weather, and those pesky puppies! The number of possible ways that all these states could vary--and the manner in which they could interact--makes it impractical and probably impossible to record. Arrow et al. (2000) argued that chaos approaches to prediction differ in three crucial respects from "positivist-reductionist analytic" approaches:

1. The operation of the system is observed in its entirety and not in terms of the directional causal effects of specific individual features.

2. The rules and principles that govern the interaction of individual features are investigated rather than trying to predict the exact values of specific variables.

3. The focus of interest is on how the system changes over time--its trajectory--and not the "average" levels of certain variables over time.

In the career development literature, there is evidence that the unpredictability of life experience does influence career paths. For instance, Morrison (1994) found that a group of people with similar Holland codes diverged in their career paths over time in ways that were not predictable from the original descriptions of their Holland types. Bright, Pryor, Wilkenfield, et al. (in press) found that 70% of a large sample of university students reported that their careers were significantly influenced by unplanned events. These events ranged from unplanned meetings to illness to messages from God.

In summary, what we have described in the Ping-Pong ball analogy is a complex or chaotic system because it contains the key elements of chaotic systems: complexity, emergence, nonlinearity, unpredictability, phase shifts, and attractors. In the remainder of this article, we highlight how these chaotic elements apply to career behavior and suggest how they might be used in counseling.

Complexity and Career Counseling

Careers are influenced by parents, social and environmental context, gender, age, political and economic climate, interests, abilities, geography, and many other events (Patton & McMahon, 1999). All of these factors, and many more, are inherently unpredictable and subject to change. For instance, economies can change rapidly and unexpectedly, political scandals can emerge from left field to change the political landscape, and acts of terrorism can have profound influences on career behavior (e.g., negative impacts on tourism, impacts on the victims and their families and communities). In counseling terms, career counselors must take this complexity into account and encourage clients to reflect on the variety of influences in their lives.