Where's the Predator orbiting?

Combat Edge, Sept, 2004 by David Lercher

In a recent RED FLAG, I was chosen to be the Predator Liaison down at Nellis for our crews flying out of Indian Springs. I attended every mission planning meeting, brief, and debrief during the 2-week stretch and found myself constantly repeating a certain theme. "Yes, the Predator is unmanned ... but it's NOT unsafe."

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The Predator weapons platform is not going away. There are those of you who've flown with a Predator in your Area of Responsibility (AOR) and those of you who will. My intent with this article is to share information on some of the safety features of the Predator and to squash some of the rumors about its ability to operate in a busy operational environment.

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The biggest misconception people have about the Predator is that we often lose communication with the plane, and that it begins to fly off into the wild blue with no clear direction. The truth is, with proper mission planning, the Predator location and direction is always known and predictable. Rarely do we lose all communications with the aircraft, but sometimes problems do arise, and we find ourselves in a "lost link" situation. To compensate for this, we constantly update a pre-programmed "lost link" mission for the aircraft. This mission consists of up to 100 waypoints, guiding the aircraft home using altitude and airspeed settings at each waypoint. We can also program the aircraft to orbit at any of the waypoints giving manned aircraft in the area a chance to complete their mission and exit the area prior to the Predator transiting the airspace.

The integral thing to remember though is a Predator can't change its profile after it goes "lost link," and we lose communications with it. Therefore, the key to ensuring the safety of our manned assets is proper communication with the Predator Liaison during mission planning. The Liaison needs to know if your 4-ship of Vipers tasked for close air support is going to be anchored at Bullseye 270/50 in the block altitude for 45 minutes.

The Predator is also very limited in its climbing capability. It is not uncommon for us to spend 15 to 20 minutes climbing from 20,000 to 23,000 feet. It can't plug in the after-burner and exit your block expeditiously, nor do the operators like changing blocks repeatedly during a vulnerability time. We often prefer a vector around the block of airspace rather than climbing or descending through it. If a vector is unrealistic in a given scenario, a small 5-mile diameter circular orbit works well for the aircraft to climb/descend.

Another area of concern is one which is often misinterpreted. As a remote piloted aircraft, the Predator is unable to employ "see and avoid" techniques in the classic sense of the instruction. Instead, the pilots make every effort to "clear" using the radios. Predator aircrews rely heavily on traffic calls from AWACS and/or Air Traffic Control just like any other nonradar equipped aircraft.

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Depending upon current mission events and priorities, the pilot may take his cameras off target for a quick scan of the skies for the traffic callout. An accurate bullseye call, with altitude and direction of travel, greatly reduces search time, enabling the pilot to "see and avoid" conflicting traffic quicker.

The bottom line is the Predator is a valuable combat asset for the mission commanders. It isn't any more "safe" or "unsafe" than any other aircraft. Statistically there are no more reportable near midairs on it than any other combat aircraft. If you communicate and coordinate your intentions during the planning phase, you will preclude as many problems as possible before the mission is executed. Finally, if you think of the Predator as the less maneuverable aircraft in a potential collision situation, it's understandable why it's easier for you to get out of its way than vice versa. With just a little time spent pre-coordinating and with your understanding of its maneuverability, you too can safely share the AOR with the Predator.

By Capt David Lercher, Nellis AFB, Nev.