China's aircraft carrier ambitions: seeking truth from rumors

Naval War College Review, Wntr, 2004 by Ian Storey, You Ji

Fits ambition to achieve "blue-water" (high seas) naval capability. Some reports suggest that China plans tn refit one or more aircraft carriers from the former Soviet Union or other countries. Others claim that China has investigated the possibility of buying a light aircraft carrier from a European shipbuilder. Other reports suggest China has already made the decision to build two or three indigenous carriers and has even allocated funding for the program. However, none of these reports has ever been confirmed, and no firm evidence exists that China really does intend to refurbish, build, or buy an aircraft carrier. Thus the prospect of a Chinese carrier remains subject to a great deal of rumor and speculation.

However, the issue is an important one, for a number of reasons. Were China to begin operating aircraft carrier battle groups, the strategic equations in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea would be altered. Moreover, the appearance of Chinese aircraft carriers would inevitably set alarm bells ringing throughout East Asia, especially in Japan and Southeast Asian capitals. It would also have implications for U.S. naval policy in the Asia-Pacific region.

This article examines the issue of Chinese aircraft carrier capability from several angles. First, it reviews the "development" of China's aircraft carrier program to date and the various media reports that have appeared over the years.

Second, it traces the progress of China's blue-water ambitions and the debate within the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) as to the necessity of acquiring such vessels. Third, it assesses China's ability to initiate a carrier-building program, and the financial, technological, and geopolitical problems involved in such a venture.

CHINA'S AIRCRAFT CARRIER PROGRAM TO DATE

The father of China's aircraft carrier research and development (R&D) program was Admiral Liu Huaqing. From 1954 to 1958 Liu studied under the great Soviet naval strategist Admiral Sergei Gorshkov at the Voroshilov Naval Academy in Leningrad. Gorshkov was the driving force behind the Soviet navy's oceangoing offensive strategy, an ambition that came to fruition during the 1980s. Gorshkov's maritime strategy greatly influenced Liu's ideas on how the People's Liberation Army Navy should evolve. Like its Soviet counterpart, the PLAN had traditionally been subordinate to the army, with a primary role of coastal defense. Liu argued that China's maritime doctrine should evolve through two stages. The first should be a "green-water active defense" that would enable the PLAN to protect China's territorial waters and enforce its sovereignty claims in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. The second phase would be to develop a blue-water navy capable of projecting power into the western Pacific. Liu was able to put these ideas into practice during his tenure as commander in chief of the PLAN (1982-88) and then as vice chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission (1989-97).

Liu believed that in order to fulfill a blue-water capability, the PLAN had to obtain aircraft carriers. In 1997, just before his retirement, Liu penned an article in Zhongguo Haiyang Bao (China's Maritime Paper) in which he argued it was "extremely necessary" for China to possess aircraft carriers. According to Liu, aircraft carriers were needed to protect China's sovereignty and maritime resources, especially with regard to Taiwan and the South China Sea; guard China's sea lanes of communications as the country industrialized and increasingly became a major trading power; enable China to keep up with regional powers such as India and Japan; and give the PLAN a decisive edge in future naval warfare. (1)

On becoming commander in chief of the Chinese navy in 1982, Liu initiated at the navy's Shanghai Research Institute a feasibility study on the design and construction of an aircraft carrier. Models were constructed and tested in the institute's six-hundred-meter (656-yard) pool and at Tai Lake in Jiangsu Province. (2) In 1985 Liu ordered the establishment at the Guangzhou Naval Academy of a training course for aircraft carrier commanders. (3) (Following the American tradition, aircraft carrier commanding officers would be selected from among pilots rather than captains of surface warships.) The importance of the course was underlined by the academy's president, Admiral Yao:

   Since the Second World War, aircraft carriers as the symbols of a
   country's important deterrent power have been accorded more
   attention. For some historical reasons, China has not yet built
   aircraft carriers. But the Academy must look forward and train
   experts needed for the carriers. As the building process is long we
   simply cannot afford to dig wells after becoming thirsty. (4)

In 1992, students in the course began active training on board China's most advanced guided-missile destroyers,s

Carrier design and pilot training received a major boost in 1985 when a Chinese ship breaker purchased the fifteen-thousand-ton Majestic-class aircraft carrier HMAS Melbourne from Australia. At that time the Australian government did not oppose the sale, because China was seen as an important strategic counterweight to perceived Soviet expansionism in Asia. The purchase helped the PLAN's R&D program in two ways. First, as the carrier was being dismantled for scrap, Chinese naval architects and engineers were able to see at first hand how it had been designed and built; using this information naval architects were able to prepare drawings for a light carrier. Second, the flight deck of the Melbourne was kept intact and used for pilot training in carrier takeoffs and landings (though a static flight deck would, of course, have been of limited utility, since it could not replicate the pitch and roll of an aircraft carrier at sea). China's carrier R&D program remained top secret. In 1987 Colonel General Xu Xing denied that China wanted to acquire an aircraft carrier capability, citing the country's "defensive" military doctrine. (6)