China's future nuclear submarine force: insights from Chinese writings

Naval War College Review, Wntr, 2007 by Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein

Western analysts have followed Russian arms transfers to China with an all-consuming interest. But the above discussions imply that one should not underestimate the transfer of "software" and expertise that has occurred in parallel with that of the hardware. The true dimensions of these intellectual transfers remain unknown.

MISSION IMPERATIVES

PRC writings concerning nuclear submarines do not hide the symbolic role of these vessels. One, for example, remarks on the precise correlation between membership in the UN Security Council and the development of nuclear submarines. (45) Indeed, it appears to be conventional wisdom in the PRC that nuclear submarines represent one of China's clearest claims to status as a great power [[TEXT NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII]]. (46) In 1989, after China's successful test Of the JL-1 SLBM, Admiral Liu, then vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, stated,

   Chairman Mao said that "we will build a nuclear submarine even if
   it takes 10,000 years." ... Our nuclear submarine [and its] stealthy
   nuclear missile both succeeded. This has [had] strong international
   repercussions. As Comrade Deng Xiaoping has said, if we did not
   have atomic bombs, missiles, [and] satellites, then we would not
   [enjoy] our present international status, and could not shape
   international great triangle relations [as a balancer to the Soviet
   Union]. Developing strategic nuclear weapons has therefore [had]
   great strategic significance for the nation. (47)

Beyond symbolism, however, what are the missions that Chinese strategists envision for the second generation of PLAN nuclear submarines?

In general, nuclear submarines are credited with having significant advantages over conventional submarines: "a large cruising radius, strong self-power [i.e., electrical power supply], high underwater speed, great diving depth, [relative] quietness and large weapons carrying capacity." (48) Perceived advantages of conventional submarines include "small volume, low noise, low cost, and mobility." (49) Underscoring the cost differential, an anonymous PLAN officer is cited as warning, "The price of one nuclear submarine can buy several, even more than ten, conventional submarines.... As a developing country, our nation's military budget is still quite low, and thus the size of the navy's nuclear submarine fleet can only be maintained at a basic scale" [[TEXT NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII]]. (50)

In 1989 Admiral Liu declared, "I believe that there are two issues in developing nuclear submarines: one is the development of SSBNs, and one is the development of SSNs. Both types of nuclear submarines should be developed, especially SSNs. Along with technological development, enemy ASW power has strengthened. Originally, using conventional submarines was sufficient to accomplish [our] missions, but now that has become problematic, [so] we must develop SSNs." (51)

To understand what strategic roles the 093 submarine might undertake, it is essential to return to the discussion initiated by both Peng Shilu and Huang Xuhua in the first part of this article concerning the particular tactical and operational advantages of nuclear submarines. Indeed, the sophistication of PLA thinking on these issues is underlined by Huang's analysis of the different roles played by SSNs for each side during the Cold War. For the Americans, he says, they were a vital element of "global attack strategy" ([TEXT NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII]). For the Soviets, by contrast, their roles were to stalk enemy carrier battle groups, as well as to defend Soviet ballistic missile submarines. (52) Concurring with Peng and Huang, a third analysis from [TEXT NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII] (National Defense) enumerates further advantages of nuclear submarines by emphasizing the all-important factor of the SSN's impressive power supply. Not to be underestimated, this supply of power can vastly improve the crew's quality of life (e.g., by providing for strong air conditioning) and support electronic combat systems. In terms of combat performance, it is said that SSNs can employ their speed to foil ASW attack and are built solidly to absorb battle damage. (53)