China's future nuclear submarine force: insights from Chinese writings

Naval War College Review, Wntr, 2007 by Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein

One Chinese expert identifies bathymetry as influencing SSBN development and deployment. He suggests that countries with shallow coastal waters on a continental shelf (such as China) face strong incentives to develop smaller SSBNs in order to better operate in local conditions. (64) Among the reasons cited by Chinese strategists for continuing development of their nation's SSBN program are the inherent stealth and mobility of the submarine, which combine to make it the "most survivable type of (nuclear) weapon" [[TEXT NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII]]. The PLAN is pursuing the 094, therefore, in order to guarantee via deterrence that mainland China is not struck by nuclear weapons and "to make sure, in the context of regional war, to prevent direct intervention by a third party" [[TEXT NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII]]. In this analysis, China's nuclear forces are viewed as critical to deterring Washington in a Taiwan scenario, and the author is unusually candid: "At present, our country's nuclear deterrent forces are insufficient; [therefore] the potential for U.S. military intervention in a cross-Strait conflict is extremely high." (65) Another source, citing China's development of the 094 submarine, emphasizes that "if a war erupts across the Taiwan Strait one day, facing the danger of China waging nuclear war, it will be very difficult for America to intervene in the cross-strait military crisis." (66)

Another PRC analysis draws a direct link between the 094 and U.S. missile defense capabilities. It proposes: "In the face of the continual upgrade of the U.S. theater missile system and the excited U.S. research and development of all sorts of new antimissile systems, of course we cannot stand by idly and watch.... We must ... [adopt] countermeasures. The most important of these countermeasures is to exert great effort in developing new types of nuclear-powered strategic missile submarines which are more capable of penetrating defenses." Failure to do so, according to these authors, will increase the likelihood that "the opponent's nuclear cudgel may some day come crashing down on the heads of the children of the Yellow Emperor." (67)

A somewhat more subtle justification for the 094 makes the argument in quasi-legalistic terms. Since China currently has a no-first-use policy for its nuclear forces, it is said to require the most survivable type of nuclear weapons (i.e., SSBN-based). The same analysis cautions that there is no need to build SSBNs in the excessive numbers that characterized the Cold War at sea. Rather, China will seek a "balanced" [[TEXT NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII]] nuclear force (both land and sea-based), just as it will seek a balanced navy. (68)

There appears to be some recognition that an effective sea-based deterrent hinges on more than stealthy second-generation nuclear submarines. A student at China's Central Party School cautions that unless the PLAN "possess[es] the ability to control passage in and out of important strategic passages in times of crisis.... In wartime, it is possible that PLAN vessels might suffer enclosure, pursuit, blocking, and interception by the enemy. Besieged in the offshore waters, [China's] sea-based nuclear deterrent could be greatly reduced." (69)