Rockets' Red Glare: Missile Defenses and the Future of World Politics - Book Review

Naval War College Review, Summer, 2002 by Carl Schloemann

Wirtz, James J., and Jeffrey A. Larsen, eds. Rockets' Red Glare: Missile Defenses and the Future of World Politics. Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 2001. 352pp. $28.50

When President George W. Bush made his remark about the "axis of evil" in his 2002 State of the Union address, he publicly exposed the ballistic missile threat Iran, Iraq, and North Korea pose to the United States and its allies. So far, media concern has concentrated only on his name-calling. Rockets' Red Glare explores the missile defenses designed to counteract the threat from these countries.

James J. Wirtz, a national security affairs professor at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, and Jeffrey A. Larsen, a senior policy analyst of the Science Applications International Corporation, edited this book, which is an anthology of papers written to explore the implications of national missile defense (NMD). Contributors had a common assumption- that NMD will be deployed in a national security environment with either a modified antiballistic missile (ABM) treaty or no antiballistic missile treaty at all. This assumption allowed them to Focus on the strategic level consequences of an NMD deployment; the editors then asked them to examine three levels of NMD deployment. These are "Limited Defense in a Cooperative Setting, "Enhanced Defenses and the Limits of Cooperation," and "Unlimited Defenses Unconstrained by Treaty."

Wirtz and Larsen organized their anthology in these three major parts. The "ABM Regime" provides historical background. Kerry Kartchner, the State Department's senior representative to the Standing Consultative Commission in Geneva, Switzerland, researched the origins of the ABM Treaty. Robert Joseph (special assistant to the president and senior director for proliferation strategy, counterproliferation, and homeland defense) reviewed the changes in the political-military landscape. Dennis Ward, a professional staff member of the Senate Governmental Affairs Subcommittee on International Security, Proliferation, and Federal Services, examined changes in technology since the inception of the ABM Treaty and their impact on both offensive and defensive systems.

Part 2 is entitled "Defense, Arms Control, and Crisis Stability." Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, takes the lead by looking at the ramifications of NMD deployment on U.S. politics. Richard Harknett, associate professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati, focuses on how the strategic landscape will change with NMD deployment. Julian Schofield, an assistant professor at Concordia University, Montreal, analyzes NMD deployment in a multilateral arms control environment.

Part 3, "Regional Responses to National Missile Defense," divides the world outside the United States into regions, and in some instances specific countries, examining the effect NMD deployment may have. Bradley Roberts, a member of the research staff at the Institute for Defense Analyses, reviews the impact NMD deployment may have on China and what its responses will likely be. Ivo H. Daalder, a senior fellow in foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution, and James Goldgeier, acting director of the Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies at George Washington University, look at NMD deployment from a Russian perspective. Timothy D. Hoyt, director of special programs and adjunct professor in the national security studies program at Georgetown University, analyzes the effects of NMD deployment on the states of South Asia, an area prominent in the current environment. Charles Ball, a senior scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, studies the wide variety of views held by U.S. global allies.

The book's appendices provide source documents, including the ABM Treaty itself and related documents that further refine the initial treaty. Presidential speeches on NMD conclude the appendices: President Bill Clinton's speech of 1 September 2000 deferring a decision on NMD; George W. Bush's speech as a presidential candidate delivered on 23 May 2000; and his presidential speech at the National Defense University on 1 May 2001.

As one who has a limited role in the operational aspects of NMD, I found in this book the historical context and strategic implications of its deployment, at least prior to the events of 11 September 2001. Obviously, those events could not have been foreseen, but we may suspect that the September tragedy would significantly reinforce the conclusions reached by the editors and contributors.

President Bush's 2002 State of the Union address showed a new willingness on the part of the United States to confront aggressively and directly the threats posed by Iran, Iraq, and North Korea. NMD provides defense against these specific ballistic missile threats. But if U.S. political determination removes the ballistic missile threat from these states, what then for NMD? If NMD deployment continues, absent a threat from Iran, Iraq, and North Korea, what effect will that have on the global landscape? Will a capabilities-based argument against an undefined and unknown emerging threat be acceptable to the rest of the world?