Feral cities - The New Strategic Environment

Naval War College Review, Autumn, 2003 by Richard J. Norton

These environmental risks could also affect ships operating near a feral city. Its miles-long waterfront may offer as protected and sheltered a setting for antishipping weapons as any formal coastal defense site. Furthermore, many port cities that today, with proper security procedures, would be visited for fuel and other supplies will, if they become feral, no longer be available. This would hamper diplomatic efforts, reduce the U.S. Navy's ability to show the flag, and complicate logistics and supply for forward-deployed forces.

Feral cities, as and if they emerge, will be something new on the international landscape. Cities have descended into savagery in the past, usually as a result of war or civil conflict, and armed resistance groups have operated out of urban centers before. But feral cities, as such, will be a new phenomenon and will pose security threats on a scale hitherto not encountered. (18) It is questionable whether the tools, resources, and strategies that would be required to deal with these threats exist at present. But given the indications of the imminent emergence of feral cities, it is time to begin creating the means.

THE HEALTH OF CITIES

               Government                 Economy

Health         Enacts effective           Robust. Significant
("Green")      legislation, directs       foreign investment.
               resources, controls        Provides goods and
               events in all portions     services. Possesses
               of the city all the        stabnle and adequate
               time. Not corrupt.         tax base.
Marginal       Evxercises only            Limited/no foreign
("Yellow")     "patchwork" or             investment. Subsi-
               "diurnal" control.         dized or decaying
               Highly corrupt.            industries and grow-
                                          ing deficits.
Going Feral    At best has negoti-        Either local subsi-
("Red")        ated zones of con-         tence industries or
               trol; at worst does        industry based on il-
               not exist.                 legal commerce.

               Services                   Security

Health         Complete range of          Well regulated by
("Green")      services, including        professional, ethical
               educational and cul-       police forces. Quick
               tural, available to all    response to wide
               city residents.            spectrum of
                                          requirements.
Marginal       Can manage mini-           Little regard for le-
("Yellow")     mal level of public        gality/human rights.
               health, hospital ac-       Police often matched/
               cess, potable water,       stymied by criminal
               trash disposal.            "peers."
Going Feral    Intermittent to non-       Nonexistent. Secu-
("Red")        existent power and         rity is attained
               water. Those who           through private
               can afford ro will         means or paying
               privately contract.        protection.