Building the future fleet: show us the analysis!

Naval War College Review, Autumn, 2004 by Eric J. Labs

Since 11 September 2001, the U.S. defense budget has risen by about 25 percent, after factoring out inflation. The reasons for such an increase are numerous: simultaneously fighting wars in both Afghanistan and Iraq, increases in military pay and benefits, and more money for some major weapons programs. In this same time period, money devoted to building the Navy's ships has only bounced around. In fiscal year 2001, the Navy spent $12 billion on ships. The President's request for ships in 2005 is $11 billion. Why might this be the case?

* First, while Navy officials may be doing an excellent job explaining why the United States needs a navy, they are not doing a good job explaining why it needs the navy they say it needs.

* Second, both numbers of ships and their capabilities matter when measuring or justifying the need for naval power.

* Third, the Navy's transformation vision, Sea Power 21, does not resolve those issues.

* Fourth, as a result, the Navy may find itself constrained to execute its long-term shipbuilding program with budgets no greater than today's levels.

THE NAVY MUST PROVIDE A BETTER EXPLANATION FOR ITS SHIP PROGRAMS

The U.S. Navy is doing a great job explaining why the United States must have a Navy, but not such a good job explaining why it needs either a 375-ship fleet, or even to maintain its current 295-ship fleet. For example, in many presentations on military transformation or the future security environment, Navy officials illustrate the paths and avenues of the world's oceangoing commerce, or the distribution of the world's population. Their point is to demonstrate how more and more of the world's economic activity crosses the oceans--hence the need for the United States to maintain an active military presence around the world to ensure the freedom of the seas. They also observe that 80 percent of the world's population lives in the littorals; therefore the Navy must locus on and be able to operate in the world's coastal regions because with the demise of the Soviet threat, that is where the action will be. The fact that most of the world's population lives in coastal regions was true twenty years ago and 200 years ago.

In 1992, the U.S. Navy in its first post-Cold War vision statement,... From the Sea, emphasized the importance of refocusing its attention from blue-water sea control to littoral operations. Twelve years later, redefining the spread of economic globalization or the sea-oriented distribution of the world's population provided little help to anyone trying to determine "how much Navy do we really need?" Over the past decade, the Navy has proposed at various times a fleet composed of 300, 310, 346, or 360 ships. The latest number is now "around 375."

The Navy's justification for the 375-ship fleet rests on a sequence of key concepts articulated in the Defense Planning Guidance (DPG) and the Navy's response to meet it. The DPG states that U.S. military strategy must defend the homeland, deter aggression in four theaters, swiftly defeat aggression in two, and win decisively in one. This has been dubbed the 1-4-2-1, or simply 4-2-1, strategy. In response, the Navy developed its Global Concept of Operations (Global Conops), which redistributes the fleet to create expeditionary strike groups out of amphibious ready groups, surface combatants, and submarines. Today's nineteen strike groups include twelve carrier battle groups and seven surface action groups. The thirty-seven strike groups of the Global Conops include those formations as well as the twelve expeditionary strike groups, two additional surface action groups, and the four SSGNs, each of which constitutes its own "group." To carry out this concept of operations, the Navy has stated, it would require about 375 ships. This is the official justification so stated in the report submitted to Congress last year. It is also found in the Navy's vision statement, "Sea Power 21," the cornerstone article written by the Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Vern Clark. (1)

Yet the Navy does not explicitly answer the question of how or why those capabilities in those quantities will achieve the strategy articulated in the DPG. Why are thirty-seven strike groups the right number? Why not forty-five or thirty? The Navy prefers to talk about capabilities and those capabilities are quite impressive, but why are 375 ships needed? Is the Navy arguing that 375 ships are necessary for deterrence in four theaters but that three hundred ships would not be able to do the same in the future? Are 375 ships necessary to swiftly defeat in two theaters, or win decisively in one? As I will demonstrate, the Navy's wartime requirement for ships appears to be less than 375. Recent history and any comparison with the naval forces of the world suggest that one decisive victory is more than covered by today's 294-ship Navy. So, if 375 ships are necessary to swiftly defeat in two theaters, then that has not been made explicit. Of course, one could criticize my argument by saying that the Navy can already do all the jobs asked of it by the Defense Planning Guidance with its existing fleet, but the nation assumes some "risk" in doing so. However, one can then immediately ask how that risk is being measured. Are U.S. national security or vital interests at stake? Or only some minor interest? How is the reduction of risk being related to by the capabilities of different fleet sizes?