The peakness: who's hot to trot at Joe Weider's 2005 Olympia showdown

Flex, Sept, 2005 by Team Flex

We're off to the races on October 15. The world's best bodybuilders will get an even start at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, but only one will cross the Olympia finish line victorious. Will frontrunner Ronnie Coleman win his record-tying eighth Sandow or will hard-charging Jay Cutler lead the pack from wire to wire? With two qualifying contests yet to be run as we go to press, there still could be late arrivals at the Olympia gate. Meanwhile, we've handicapped the field of 20 as it stood this summer.

Going by track records, FLEX has computed the odds for the eight men with the best shot at the winner's circle, but it's likely that at least one of the remaining dozen will surprise and finish strong. Watch out for Alexander Fedorov. As the youngest and one of the biggest men in the contest, no handicapper can be certain what to expect of his American debut. In the year that a 50-1 long shot won the Kentucky Derby, and with new judging guidelines emphasizing small waists and pleasing proportions at IFBB contests, bet on the unexpected. It's likely the 40th anniversary Mr. Olympia will be a photo finish.

THE MR. OLYMPIA WINNER'S CIRCLE

Larry Scott 1965-66

Sergio Oliva 1967-69

Arnold Schwarzenegger 1970-75 & 1980

Franco Columbu 1976 & 1981

Frank Zane 1977-79

Chris Dickerson 1982

Samir Bannout 1983

Lee Haney 1984-91

Dorian Yates 1992-97

Ronnie Coleman 1998-2004

RONNIE COLEMAN

FLEX ODDS: EVEN

* Prohibitive favorite

* Always a strong front-runner

* Going for record-tying eighth Olympia win

* Overwhelming mass

* Waistline and watery upper body could slow him at finish line

* Oldest man in the race

JAY CUTLER

FLEX ODDS: 2-1

* Number-one contender

* Trifecta 1: finished second in last three Olympia appearances

* Trifecta 2: won last three Arnold Schwarzenegger Classic contests he entered

* May have the mass to match Coleman this year

* May not have enough fine details to outpace the field

CHRIS CORMIER

FLEX ODDS: 5-1

* Consistently finishes in the money, but often nipped at the wire

* Double trifecta: finished second in last six Arnold Classics

* Flexed in a record 53 pro posedowns

* As one of the oldest competitors, needs to prove he didn't peak in 2002 when he finished third at the Olympia

* Bet on Cormier to place high, but not to win all

GUSTAVO BADELL

FLEX ODDS: 5-1

* Last year's long-shot surprise (placed third)

* Strong closer in the Challenge Round

* A lot of quality mass, but may be slowed by growing too big too fast

* Watch his conditioning and waistline

* Even money to make the posedown again

GUNTER SCHLIERKAMP

FLEX ODDS: 6-1

* Last competitor to defeat Coleman (2002 Show of Strength)

* Hasn't hit his stride again since the '02 Show of Strength, his one pro victory

* Popular favorite, attracts a lot of money

* Could close fast down the backstretch if he comes in as full and cut as in '02

MARKUS RUHL

FLEX ODDS: 6-1

* Broke through last year (finished fifth)

* Always has enough mass for the winner's circle

* Most-muscular poses allow him to finish strong in the Challenge Round homestretch

* New judging emphasis on small waists could decrease his odds of success

LEE PRIEST

FLEX ODDS: 12-1

* Looking to move up from the sixth position, where he has finished three times

* May have mastered his conditioning this year

* Won't lose an arm pose to anyone

* Even money to make the posedown, but unlikely to make the top three

DARREM CHARLES

FLEX ODDS: 12-1

* On a winning streak: two wins this year, four wins in past two years

* Struggles against mass monsters in the O; placed higher than 10th only once

* Has entered the most Olympias (six) of all those in the field who have not made a posedown

* Superior conditioning and posing could make this his posedown year

ALEXANDER FEDOROV

WILD CARD

* Front-runner or also-ran?

* Finished second to Coleman at the Russian Grand Prix last November, but he is untested at this level

* Olympia rookie is the greatest unknown in the race

* At 27, the only competitor under age 30 and seven years younger than the average age of 34

* Has the mass to finish strong and challenge for a top spot

TROY ALVES

** Made the greatest improvements of anyone in this year's field; should've won the 2005 Ironman

** Needs to maintain or improve conditioning he had in February

** Could be this year's long-shot surprise and challenge for a top spot down the homestretch

MELVIN ANTHONY

** Hasn't missed a posedown in any contest he's entered since 2003

** Posing routine makes him a strong closer

** Needs to show best-ever condition to nose his way into the top six at this level

VICTOR MARTINEZ

** Frequently suffers "gym glory"--shows great potential before the race, but fails to close strong

** Has the shape and mass to challenge for a top spot if he reaches best-ever condition

** Needs to focus 100% on the finish line

JOHNNIE JACKSON

** Reached best-ever shape this year: second place at the Toronto Pro

** Another possible long-shot surprise