Arab democracy just an illusion?

Catholic New Times, April 10, 2005 by Eric Margolis

The Bush administration is crowing about what it claims is "a wave of democracy and freedom" sweeping the Middle East. And it's all thanks to the invasion of Iraq, insists the White House, offering the umpteenth new rationale for going to war. Just look: Iraq held an election of sorts under U.S. "guidance." Egypt's long-time ruler, Gen. Hosni Mubarak, says he will allow multi-party elections; Tunisia and Saudi Arabia recently held elections. Lebanon, rent by pro and anti-Syrian protests, may soon hold new elections. All this does look like the dawn of Arab democracy--to those who don't know much about the region. Up close, the picture is less rosy.

Ironically, the man most responsible for pushing the Arab world towards political change is not George W. Bush, but his nemesis, Osama bin Laden.

For over a decade, bin Laden has agitated for the overthrow of the corrupt, despotic Arab regimes supported by the U.S., and their replacement by a traditional Islamic democratic consensus. As bin Laden's anti-American insurgency gathers strength and resonates among the restive Arab masses, the Bush administration has urged the frightened kings and generals running Washington's client Arab regimes to make a show of democratic reforms to head off popular uprisings.

Most of these reforms are pure sham. Washington stage-managed Iraq's vote to empower Shia and Kurdish yes-men who will pretend to rule while the U.S. continues to run Iraq and pump its oil. Mubarak, the U.S.-backed military ruler of Egypt, is apparently grooming his son to take over under cover of rigged "open, multi-party" elections. In October, Tunisia's U.S.-backed military dictator won "re-election" by a Soviet-style 94.5 per cent. Saudi Arabia's recent vote was an empty exercise. Lebanon's noisy anti-Syrian demonstrations, which Bush hailed a "democratic revolution," were staged by a minority of its citizens--mostly anti-Syrian Maronite Christians and Druze.

Lebanon's largest ethnic group, Shia, "strongly back both Syria's presence and Hezbollah, Lebanon's most popular political party. Mounting U.S. involvement in Lebanon risks re-igniting that nation's bloody, 15-year civil war.

The Arab world desperately needs democracy, rule of law, free speech and honest government. Ironically, even Israel's Arabs, though second-class citizens, enjoy more human and political rights than in many Arab states But most Arabs see Bush's "freedom" crusade as a cynical campaign to tighten U.S. control of the Mideast by ditching old-fashioned generals and monarchs for more modern, democratic-looking civilian regimes that still do Washington's bidding.

The Arab world's only truly free election was held in 1991 by Algeria's U.S.- and French-supported military regime. Islamic parties won a landslide. The military annulled the vote and jailed Islamist leaders--backed by Washington and Paris. It's likely any honest votes held in feudal Jordan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, or military-run Egypt, Libya, and Syria, would produce similar results.

Most Arab states lack political legitimacy. Soldiers and ferocious secret police keep their repressive regimes in power. Once U.S. support for these oligarchies wavers, as is happening now, opposition swells up. After Washington began voicing doubts in 1979 about the old U.S. ally, the Shah of Iran, revolution ensued. The same process is now under way in Saudi Arabia.

The Bush administration is right. Arabs need democracy. But it is behaving like a bull in the Mideast china shop and is following contradictory policies. Bush wants more popular, less dictatorial regimes, but only those catering to U.S. strategic interests. All this ham-handed U.S. political engineering may produce a dangerous muddle.

If Bush really wants real Mideast democracy, he should begin with Egypt, which contains a third of all Arabs, and is essentially a U.S. protectorate. End its military dictatorship, allow real political parties, a free press, and honest elections. Do not allow Egypt to get away with more sham elections. Set a sterling example for the democracy-deficient Muslim world.

The problem, unfortunately, is that the Arab world's most popular political figure is very likely bin Laden.

Eric Margolis is the contributing Foreign Editor to the Toronto Sun with extensive experience in the Middle East.