Uncertainty

Custom Home, April, 2003 by Leslie Ensor

While we've always had to deal with the unknown, ever since Sept. 11, 2001, uncertainty has been more than a constant companion. It's been, as they say, in our face.

We confront a litany of questions that has largely gone unanswered. While the war in Iraq is just under way as I write this, and its final outcome is near certain, we don't know what the aftermath of this war will mean for our economy or for world stability. And on the home front, we wonder when, where, and how terrorists will attack next.

We're also in the third year of a bear market and dealing with an economy in low gear. Right now it looks like the economy either could grow modestly or fall into part two of a double-dip recession. We wonder if this is finally the year that has that bright second half so many Wall Street economists have promised for each of the last three years. Or will deflation rear its nasty head, as a few, far gloomier economists predict? Some say the housing market is in a bubble and could burst at any moment. I'd have to side with those who point out that there are no signs of that happening any time soon. Still, more than a few markets have had the wind taken out of their sails.

From unemployment to the tax code to growth issues, a series of national and local questions are up in the air. This is a tough time to be running a business. The measure of success is how well you manage and plan through a period in which so much is uncertain.

The message senior editor Bruce Snider and assistant editor Shelley Hutchins gleaned from their research for "Spot Market" (page 64), a feature on the state of regional custom home markets, is that the best game plan for navigating these challenging times is to pay attention to fundamentals. These aren't bad ideas at any time, but now especially, builders told them, it's important to closely watch the economic health of your local market, make sure your staff is as productive as possible, and be on the lookout for emerging and declining opportunities.

I'd add that, above all, it's important to stay optimistic, enthusiastic, and flexible because there's only one thing that is truly not uncertain, and that is that before we know it, all our unanswered questions once again will have changed.