Spaceflight Revolution

Air & Space Power Journal, Spring, 2005 by Paul G. Niesen

Spaceflight Revolution by David Ashford. Imperial College Press (http://www.icpress.co.uk), 57 Shelton Street, Covent Garden, London WC2H 9HE, United Kingdom, 2002, 204 pages, $56.00 (hardcover), $25.00 (softcover).

Although three years old, Spaceflight Revolution is actually quite timely. This review comes on the heels of the historic SpaceShipOne flights into space and the successful conclusion of NASA's X-43 scramjet experiments, some of which author David Ashford addresses in his book. Despite the wording of the title, his ideas are not revolutionary but evolutionary. They follow a time-honored sequence of events that other high-dollar, high-technology programs have already trodden--migrating from management under a government agency into the private sector as soon as the program becomes commercially viable.

Still, Spaceflight Revolution is visionary. Ashford goes to great lengths to persuade the reader that space will soon--in 10-20 years--become commercially viable for tourism and extensive research and, soon thereafter, for commercial applications (some not yet thought of). Imagine a space plane that transports passengers to an orbiting hotel where they spend two or three nights marveling at the earth below and the wonders of zero gravity (or low gravity). Ashford does a good job of walking the reader through the mechanics of what it will take to realize this vision.

In his zeal to convince us of this outcome, however, he appears to take some statistical and analytical liberties. Several times Ashford estimates production or development costs of a space-plane project with rounded up or grossly estimated numbers. For example, figure 12.1, "Development Cost Trends," uses a scatter plot of various programs on a logarithmic scale. The author combines multiple data types in an attempt to illustrate the point he wants to make--that development costs of a modern space plane fall well within a country's or company's affordable realm. However, his chart is at best confusing; at worst it is statistically inaccurate. Several other examples similar to this one tend to make readers question the credibility of the book's very extensive analysis. Additionally, Ashford seems to make too much of the X-15. Granted, it was the only fitly reusable "space plane" for several decades (even the space shuttle cannot make that claim), but readers get the message after the first few pages.

Nevertheless, this book appeals to my desire that mankind not only reach for the stars but also dwell among them. Given time, I too would seriously contemplate a brief trip to space--perhaps even to a space hotel or stopover (not unlike a visit to the top of the Gateway Arch in Saint Louis or the Washington Monument)--just to relish our fragile home from a new angle. Spaceflight Revolution is a well-thought-out book that drives toward a logical conclusion. If the reader takes the statistics and some of the other analysis with a grain of salt, Ashford's argument becomes very convincing.

Maj Patti G. Niesen, USAF

Maxwell AFB, Alabama