NATO's Eastern Agenda in a New Strategic Era

Air & Space Power Journal, Summer, 2005 by John Albert

NATO's Eastern Agenda in a New Strategic Era by F. Stephen Larrabee. RAND (http://www.rand. org/), 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, California 90407-2138, 2003, 192 pages, $30.00. http:// www. rand.org/publications/MR/MR1744/.

On 2 April 2004, seven new flags were raised in front of NATO Headquarters in Brussels. This flag raising marked the formal admission to NATO of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Romania, Slovenia, and Bulgaria. A few years ago, this admission ceremony would have been thought to be very unlikely. The ceremony marked another step in NATO's continuing transformation, a transformation that started with the end of the Cold War and continues in the new strategic environment of the post-9/ll world. In this short, well-informed, and clearly articulated book, Stephen Larrabee does an excellent job of explaining the reasons for NATO's continued enlargement and the challenges that lie ahead for both the United States and NATO.

This book was written under the auspices of RAND's Project Air Force. Larrabee, a well-respected analyst of NATO's transformation, has written on this subject for over a decade. In a now famous article in the September/October 1993 issue of Foreign Affairs, with Ron Asmus and Richard Kugler, he coined the saying "NATO must go out of area or go out of business" (p. 31). He continues this line of argument and believes that NATO's eastward expansion is a key part of maintaining its relevance in the post-9/11 world.

He identifies four strategic challenges facing NATO's transformation as it moves its boundaries eastward: (1) consolidating the democratic transitions in Eastern and Central Europe, (2) ensuring the security of the Baltic States, (3) developing a post-enlargement strategy for Ukraine, and (4) deepening the Russia-NATO partnership. Larrabee feels that NATO will have to develop strategies for dealing with the Balkans, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.

The first Central and Eastern European countries to join NATO were Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary in March 1999. Ironically, they joined only weeks before NATO "went to war" for the first time in its history with the launching of Operation Allied Force. Hungary found itself providing bases for NATO air strikes on Serbia. The second wave of enlargement added Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Slovenia as NATO members in Central and Eastern Europe. Larrabee notes that all these countries are still working on solidifying their democracies and have significant work to do to modernize their armed forces. To the US Air Force, these countries offer staging bases for areas to the east. Bases in Bulgaria and Romania were used during Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom. These countries also offer a less restrictive training environment than many places in Western Europe. By "showing the flag" in these countries, the United States showed commitment to them, strengthened military-to-military relations, and brought beneficial hard currency to their economies.

The admission of the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia to NATO marked the culmination of a process believed to be impossible only a few years ago. They became the first countries from the former Soviet Union to be admitted to NATO. Granted membership mainly for political reasons, they present NATO with a significant defense problem: how would they be defended? Larrabee suggests that the best solution might be through the employment of precision-guided weapons and networkcentric warfare, following the "Afghan model." The Air Force would assume leadership in executing this type of strategy.

His analysis of the need for NATO and the United States to expand and deepen their relations with the Ukraine and Russia involves similar problems. Both countries currently have flawed or weak democracies and militaries in need of extensive reform. Both are crucial to future security in Europe, and in the case of Russia, globally. He makes clear that the stakes are high and that the outcome is far from assured.

Larrabee points out that the problems that existed in the Balkans during the 1990s are still unsettled, but he believes that the European Union could assume much of the responsibility for this region, freeing NATO for other tasks. He continues to believe that NATO has a valuable "out of area" mission to perform and notes that the importance of Central Asia increased substantially with NATO and US involvement in Afghanistan, which will be sustained for the foreseeable future. In addition to Afghanistan, he sees a role for NATO in Iraq and possibly elsewhere in the Middle East.

Larrabee offers a compelling case that the United States can leverage its interests in pursuing a war on terrorism and other security challenges of the twenty-first century by exploiting its leadership role in NATO. Strengthening NATO's capability to adapt to the new security environment will not be an easy task. It will require a significant commitment of time and effort on the part of the United States, but such a commitment would be well worth the effort.