A practical approach to effects-based operational assessment

Air & Space Power Journal, Summer, 2008 by Clinton R. Clark, Timothy J. Cook

Where Is the Operational Art?

The process of developing an effective strategy requires "significant creativity and hard thinking" and must involve the entire strategy team, consisting of operations, intelligence, logistics, analysis, and sister-service personnel. (18) Development of the plan's structure--the decomposition from missions to tasks--is an entirely qualitative process based on the experiences and judgment of strategists. Additionally, assigning weightings for relative importance and choosing success indicators, MOEs, and MOPs must be based on the knowledge and experiences of the entire strategy team.

Well-structured plans provide the basis for the use of quantitative-assessment models. (19) Therefore the OA team must play a critical role in developing the air operations plan to ensure the ability to assess results accurately.

But offering effective strategy recommendations requires that we view the results produced by this quantitative model in the context of the operation. At this point, the strategist's application of operational art becomes critical.

The science of this methodology generates scores, not assessments. Producing OAs requires a blend of operational art and mathematical science. The models produce scores that draw attention to areas of interest. Nevertheless, we must investigate the results for cause-effect relationships and bring into play the trained eyes of experienced strategy professionals to interpret them. The scores will highlight opportunities for recommendations to "stay the course," "change the plan," or "shift weights of effort"; ultimately, though, such decisions will emerge only after collaboration with the entire strategy team.

Where Is the Data?

Lack of data represents a real problem for all analytic OA methodologies, including this one. We find data-collection and dissemination challenges in every theater, and we must plan for them. Experience and sound judgment, already a necessary ingredient for quality assessments, increase in importance when we do not possess the required information (military intelligence, battle damage assessments, mission reports, etc.) for assessment models. The reality of limited data, however, does not relieve the OA team of its responsibilities to develop a sound assessment structure, identify intelligence and other information requirements, and conduct a sound OA.

Even in the worst cases of data deficiency, great benefits accrue to implementing an assessment methodology such as that described in this article since this "structuring ... results in a deeper and more accurate understanding of ... the decision context." (20) further, by providing a sound analytic framework, the OA team will have a frame of reference when it discusses confidence in results. The team can couch OA results and recommendations in terms of data availability, providing the JFACC greater insight into the balance of art and science in the current assessment.

Finally, a consistent and methodical approach to OA can counter the inevitable effects of a lack of continuity in the JAOCs. Although a lack of data, combined with the constant rotation of personnel assigned to the JAOC, may seem an impenetrable barrier to sound OA, a method such as the one proposed here can reassure the JFACC that assessments and recommendations are based upon a consistent approach.