A practical approach to effects-based operational assessment

Air & Space Power Journal, Summer, 2008 by Clinton R. Clark, Timothy J. Cook

To provide greater insight to the JFACC, the OA team should "peel the onion back" an additional layer. Figure 10, an in-depth look at a single air-superiority objective, permits additional insight by examining effect-performance discrepancies at the lowest levels. This "stoplight chart" highlights the cause that drives the difference in our overall effect and performance scores for air superiority. Although enemy fighters have not affected friendly fighter aircraft ("green" effect score), we have done little to degrade the adversary's fighter capability ("red" performance score).

This outcome highlights a potential disconnect in our assumed causal linkage for this task and effect, as well as an opportunity to reallocate scarce airpower resources. However, we could cite numerous explanations for this observation. The enemy may have redeployed his fighters deep within his borders--beyond our reach but available for use later (high future risk). He may have buried his aircraft in the desert, never to use them again (opportunity to reallocate resources). The enemy may be using his fighter aircraft for purposes we did not anticipate--ones that do not affect friendly fighter aircraft. However, enemy aircraft may be significantly affecting the JFC's campaign by posing a viable threat to neighboring nations (we may not understand the enemy system).

As needed, this approach allows the OA team to provide greater depth and breadth of assessment that will help the JFACC execute air operations more effectively and efficiently. Designed to support a strategist's recommendations to the JFACC, this methodology does not eliminate the need for operational art; rather, it quickly highlights areas of opportunity and risk for strategists to consider when they make recommendations to the JFACC.

[FIGURE 10 OMITTED]

Summary and Recommendations

OA will prove useful to the JFACC if it adds to his or her understanding of the campaign's progress. By independently evaluating performance and effect, the OA methodology described in this article provides a better understanding of the relationship between the actions of friendly forces and their impact on the enemy system. Previous OA methodologies suffered from various limitations that yielded difficult-to-interpret information when events did not proceed according to plan. Comparing performance and effect enables the JFACC to determine if he or she is doing things right and doing the right things. Armed with this knowledge, the JFACC can make adjustments to the strategy as required.

Real-World Implementations

numerous JAOCs have implemented the assessment methodology presented in this article, Seventh Air force having done so the most completely and effectively. After the OA team demonstrated the methodology during Exercise Ulchi focus Lens 2006, the chief of the strategy division and the JFACC issued immediate guidance to adopt it. Following the exercise, the division chief focused his strategy rewrite conference on "planning for assessment," fully implementing the methodology in support of his strategy-development process for Seventh Air force's primary war plan. The Seventh's Reception, Staging, onward-Movement, and integration 2007 exercise validated the value of this methodology.