Simple communication drives mobile Internet in 2003 says Center for Telecom Management - Market Intelligence - University of Southern California industry forecasts

Mobile Internet, The, Jan, 2003

Recent surveyed telecom experts predict that new products and services that evolve from e-mail, messaging, and voice applications will drive 2003 mobile Internet growth in the United States, according to a new report by the Center for Telecom Management at the University of Southern California (USC) Marshall School of Business. The Telecom Outlook Report (TOR) on Wireless, the latest in a series of industry analyses by researchers at USC, projects 2003 to be a boom year for short message services (SMS) text messaging between mobile phones or to an e-mail address propelling continued growth of mobile wireless.

The TOR experts said that 34 percent of all SMS would be accessed through mobile devices next year. Nearly 30 percent of multimedia message services (MMS) conveying animation, photos, and audio and video files will be accessed via mobile devices in 2003. However, researchers warn that the success of the mobile Internet depends on strategic long-term partnerships between network operators, service providers, and content providers.

"No one company is equipped to offer end-to-end service. Partnerships are a strategic component in the development of wireless applications and services that will find a broad market," said USC's Elizabeth Fife, the report's author.

Mobile data service must be simple, convenient, secure, and reliable. This entails looking closely at how people use their wire devices, and extending these behaviors to a broadband environment, reports Fife.

The experts surveyed believe that ring tones, games, chat services, and other amusements lacking productivity benefits are not the keys to mass-market wireless adoption in 2003. The overall global market will move forward with useful and easy services and devices. According to Fife, "It is the simple kinds of information and communication-based services that still have greater potential over the next year, rather than high-speed data services including entertainment related services, wireless shopping, multimedia, and video-based services."

Fife adds that the experts do not view 3G networks as part of the immediate plan to grow mobile wireless subscription in the United States. The apparent reason is a lack of demand in the United States for mobile communication compared to Europe or Japan, where deployment will likely happen first. Still unclear to the experts is whether 3G will provide anything compelling enough to consumers and businesses to justify hefty investments. While successes in Finland, Japan, South Korea, and elsewhere may offer some clues for the US market, the report's consensus discourages too close a focus on strategies and business models that have bolstered wireless markets abroad. Pricing and revenue models are largely not transferable, and American consumer habits and biases are unique.

The Telecom Outlook Report on Wireless advocates a clear need to understand how customers live and use their wireless devices to improve everyday convenience. The report analyzes m-commerce consumer market forecasts, business models to support wireless data revenues, the enterprise market, device connectivity, international comparisons, and wireless network infrastructure.