Down time: predictions of when Miami International Airport will return to pre-9/11 levels continue to stretch further into the future. Where once it was 2004, now it's 2006. So what's an airport to do? Finish a massive capital improvement program so it will be ready when boom times return - Air///State of the Ports 2003

South Florida CEO, March, 2003 by J.P. Faber

Down Markets

What is hurting traffic at Miami International Airport is precisely what had always helped it: the airport's intricate web of international connections, particularly to South America and the Caribbean. Prior to the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, MIA was riding the crest of a global passenger wave. Both months preceding the attack saw record international passenger levels of more than 1.5 million people. September and October saw those numbers drop by more than 600,000 passengers a month. Domestic air travelers, many of whom come to Miami for its Latin American connections, also dropped off. From a peak of 1.7 million in March 2001 (and 1.48 million in August 2001), September 2001 saw less than 800,000 domestic passengers and October 2001 less than 1 million.

Those numbers have climbed steadily back, but are still not what they were before the terrorist attack suddenly made airline travel seem so perilous. And the bad news is that recovery is still some time away.

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"All of the market and economic conditions are negative in the short run," says Gittens. "You have continued economic recession both in the US and Latin America, which are our two major markets, and no sign in 2003 that either is going to turn around." Gittens notes that commercial aviation typically lags any economic upswing, and that the Latin American economies typically lag the US economy. "What that means to us is that the rebound that we thought would happen in 2004--in terms of getting back to where we started, pre 9/11--won't happen until 2006. And that's a long time."

Meanwhile, South Florida's second-largest airport--Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport--is recovering rapidly in terms of its passenger counts. Whereas MIA slipped 5.5 percent last year in passenger count (and Palm Beach International 7.7 percent), Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport had the best year in its history, with more than 17 million passengers for the first time.

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A key reason for the different trajectories is that less than 10 percent of Fort Lauderdale's air passenger traffic is international, compared to roughly 50 percent of MIA's. Indeed, Fort Lauderdale airport's international traffic fell 13.8 percent (to 1.2 million passengers) last year. That airport is also a key hub for discount carriers such as JetBlue and Spirit Airlines, whereas MIA's airlines are more traditional in their mix.

"The unique aspect of MIA is that because we are so heavily invested in Latin American and Caribbean nations, we are seeing the effects of those ailing economies," says Charles Jainarain, president of Miami-based trade research firm Greenheart International. "So our recovery is just not as swift as some other airports. We have a double whammy--the effects of 9/11 and the [recession] here, and the ailing economies in Latin America."

Cargo Rising

While passenger count is clearly suffering, the picture is not nearly as gloomy on the cargo side. By July of 2002, international freight tons at MIA were tracking well ahead of the previous year, enough to bring 2002 up 3.12 percent over 2001. Even with a slip in domestic freight, overall tonnage was up at year's end.