Asian ceramics: Samson Spanier disputes reports that the mainland Chinese are pushing up prices, and points out the best value in this vigorous market

Apollo, June, 2006 by Samson Spanier

When on 23 July last year Christie's sold a an-dynasty jar in London for 15m [pounds sterling] against an estimate of 3-5m [pounds sterling], many people concluded that newly rich collectors from the Chinese mainland were repatriating their heritage with unlimited financial resources. The jar (Fig. 2) is part of a wider pattern of high prices, although it is admittedly by far the most spectacular. To name just one other of these well publicised sales, at Sotheby's, Hong Kong, on 9 November last year, a Qianlong vase (Fig. 1) sold for nearly 8m [pounds sterling].

[FIGURES 1-2 OMITTED]

Yet experts reject the claim that the mainland Chinese are the big buyers. Giuseppe Eskenazi, who bought the jar for a private collector, says, 'I know for a fact that no Chinese bidders were in after 10m' [pounds sterling]. Rosemary Scott of Christie's says that estimations of the power of mainland buyers 'should not get out of proportion,' and Henry Howard-Sneyd, head of Sotheby's Asia in Hong Kong, goes further, saying, 'there is no evidence for it at all'.

The explanation is less glamorous but actually better news for the art market: the top level is booming because, as has traditionally been the case, Chinese ceramics are collected around the world. The richest buyers are a mix of Americans, Europeans, Taiwanese and Hong Kong residents--but not mainlanders. So even if any one area of the world suffers a recession, the market should remain healthy. Meanwhile, export porcelain enjoys a solid if modest market unconnected to the mainland; at a sale at Sotheby's, London, in November 2004, 28 of 30 pieces of Portuguese armorial porcelain sold to Portuguese dealers, the top lot fetching 55,000 [pounds sterling].

The market is not in the midst of a bubble. A Yuan figure of the goddess Guanyin sold at Sotheby's, London, on 9 November 2005, for 1.7m [pounds sterling]. It was last sold in 1987 for $300,000.

This eight-fold increase over 18 years, but without allowance for inflation, is impressive, but is similar to rises in other areas.

China's economic boom and its government's abandonment of the Cultural Revolution are, nevertheless, having profound effects, the most important of which is demand for more modest lots. At Lempertz, Cologne, in June last year, a blue and white 17th-century sleeve vase went to a mainland dealer for 39,000 [euro], while at Sotheby's, London, last March an 18th-century vase sold for 29,000 [pounds sterling] to another. Of lots that fetch below 200,000 [pounds sterling], about 30% of Ming and Qing wares may be going to the mainland, estimates Eskenazi.

It seems that mainlanders are not yet rich enough to compete at the top level. They have also been collecting for a shorter time, and are more rational buyers, says Howard-Sneyd: 'There is no need for them to hold the top things. They can satisfy their thirst at the lower level.' However, everyone is confident that mainlanders will bid increasingly high, and it is already the case that they sometimes bid over 1m [pounds sterling], although they tend to be out-gunned. But the market may now be stabilising. Howard-Sneyd suspects that there is a 'last chance' quality, to some bids, buying before mainlanders start to push up prices. Since these purchases are being made in the anticipation of greater mainland wealth, it is possible that prices will plateau. Mainland Chinese buyers have tastes that differ from other collectors. They prefer Qing wares (1644-1912), because, says Scott, they are technically perfect--which is more of a priority- in the east than in the west--thanks to the great investment in ceramic ateliers by Qing emperors. Howard-Sneyd says that Qing is the most accessible because it is the last dynast, and some of its architecture (for instance) still exists. Others might say the reason is that the uneducated, new-money collectors--the typical mainlander--want the flashiest works. The 8m [pounds sterling] Qianlong vase (Fig. 1) was much coveted (in vain) by mainlanders.

The rest of the world's collectors appear to be salivating for Yuan. To the 15m [pounds sterling] jar can be added the two Yuan jars that both sold for about 2.5m [pounds sterling] at Sotheby's, New York, and Doutrebante, Paris, in March. There is debate about why this should be. Some believe that it just so happens that several outstanding Yuan works have been offered recently, and something of similar quality." of another period would perform equally well. Scott thinks that the past 30 years of scholarship is having an effect. Archaeological excavation of kiln sites has shown that the Yuan court commissioned blue-and-white porcelain, overturning previous views. Whereas a Yuan blue-and-white jar was previously considered 'just another' Ming piece, it is now revealed to be the best example from a different, earlier dynasty.

All the experts agree that the dynasty--that now offers the best value is Song. Since Song wares are monochrome and very old (960-1279), they are not immediately attractive; mainlanders almost completely ignore them. At Sotheby's, London, in November last year, Song works were acquired selectively and at the secondary sale, an 11-lot collection was unsold.