The Palestinian-Israel: cyberwar

Military Review, March-April, 2003 by Patrick D. Allen, Chris C. Demchak

Similar to the Palestinians, the Chinese created a website from which volunteer hackers could obtain the tools and techniques necessary to launch the "USA Kill" program. (18) The U.S. National Infrastructure Protection Center (NIPC) announced a warning on 26 April 2001 to all U.S. government and commercial websites. (19) Meanwhile, U.S. hackers, incensed by the prolonged holding of the EP-3 crew in China, began organizing the "China Killer" program. (20) By the time Chinese hackers declared a truce, they claimed to have defaced or denied service to more than 1000 U.S. websites. Pro-U.S. hackers apparently caused a similar amount of damage to Chinese websites.

Four Phases of Future Cyber Conflicts

Cyber conflicts will--

* Involve an initial period of surprise, followed by a much longer period of adaptation and recovery.

* Escalate rapidly and broaden as attackers seek vulnerable targets.

* Develop rapidly into international conflict as volunteer hackers align themselves with, or against, the various factions.

* Increase the pace of cyber arms development and proliferation.

Based on observations of the conflicts between Palestine and Israel and China and the United States, we believe future cyber conflicts will occur in four phases.

Phase I: Surprise and adaptation. The Palestinian-Israeli cyberwar is an excellent example of how a nation can be surprised by a cyber attack. The Israeli teenage hackers initially surprised pro-Palestinian websites with their DDoS attacks. When the Palestinians declared a cyber-Jihad against Israel, the pro-Palestinian hackers achieved an equal level of surprise against the targeted Israeli websites. The Israelis were surprised that their own citizens had initiated the cyber conflict. They also were surprised by the magnitude of the pro-Palestinian response and by the vulnerability of their government and civilian sites. After the initial shock, each side went through a period of repairing system damage and improving defenses against future attacks.

The initial effects of the conflict are worth considering. Jerusalembooks.com, Israel's largest online book provider, was shut down for days because of a web-defacement attack. The firm faced days of lost sales and the risk of a prolonged lack of consumer confidence in the security of on-line transactions. (21) In a similar manner, the Israeli Land Administration Office's website was shut down for months. (22) For Israel as a whole, such shutdowns created a lack of confidence. In addition, the large number of DDoS attacks (more than 115 in the region between 6 October and 2 December 2000) strained the Middle East's already sparse Internet infrastructure. (23)

The ultimate cost of cyber attack is generally greater to commercial targets than it is to government sites. As stated by Lawrence Gershwin, the CIA's top technology adviser, in congressional testimony, "Our 'wired' society puts all of us--U.S, business, in particular, because they must maintain an open exchange with customers--at higher risk from enemies." (24)