The Fallacies of Cold War Deterrence and a New Direction

Military Review, Nov-Dec, 2003 by Joel A. Woodward, Keith B. Payne

Keith B. Payne, University Press of Kentucky, Lexington, 2001, 225 pages, $19.95.

Keith B. Payne's book, The Fallacies of Cold War Deterrence and a New Direction, argues that the U.S. approach to deterrence is based on flawed assumptions and that it creates a dangerous overconfidence and complacency among policy-makers. Cold War deterrence policy was based on the premise that the Soviet Union would behave in accordance with what the United States perceived as rational. Today, the Cold War framework for deterrence remains unchanged despite the dramatic changes to the international context. Payne exposes the flaws within that framework and offers a more comprehensive and empirical methodology for formulating U.S. deterrence postures.

Payne deconstructs the U.S. faith in Cold War nuclear deterrence and reveals the chilling facts of Soviet war plans that diverged from U.S. expectations. Despite this, the U.S. approach to deterrence in the post-Cold War era continues to rely on the same invalid assumptions of rationality. Policymakers apply this framework indiscriminately to every potential threat regardless of specific contextual considerations. Payne's alternative is to develop a tailored model for every disparate opponent. His approach would be based on developing a thorough understanding of each potential challenger and the factors that influence the decision-making process. He applies his methodology to a Sino-American conflict scenario precipitated by a crisis over Taiwan.

Payne presents a compelling argument for adopting a new approach in deterrence. While deterring the use of weapons of mass destruction remains a fundamental U.S. strategic objective, Payne offers new ways and new applications of means to achieve those ends. As president of the National Institute for Public Policy, and author of several books on strategic topics, Payne is an experienced strategy and policy analyst. His book is topical and timely as public debate on National Missile Defense continues and as the United States considers how to adapt strategically to an array of threats including global terrorism.

MAJ Joel A. Woodward, USA,

Fort Leavenworth, Kansas