Massively Multiplying Online Games Face Age of Cannibalization

Electronic Gaming Business, August 25, 2004

The latest version of the industry's only monitor of Massively Multiplayer Online Games (MMOGs), Version 9 of Bruce Sterling Woodcock's running poll of subscriber levels, reveals that a number of venerable old titles are losing steam among online persistent world players, while newer players are both cannibalizing these familiar brands while also growing the market.

"You can see how EverQuest and Ultima Online have appeared to be shrinking over the past year, which corresponds with the launch of several MMOGs like Star Wars: Galaxies, the North American launch of Final Fantasy XI, Planetside, EverQuest Online Adventures, ShadowBane, Eve Online, City of Heroes," Woodcock tells EGB.

"MMOGs seem to find their audience quickly," says Woodcock, "peaking within a few months and then often shrinking when some of the players find the game disappointing or decide to move on and try another one, or even go back to playing their old one. Still, City of Heroes (180,000 subs) and Star Wars: Galaxies (300,000) show that you can still have major MMOG success in North America."

Franchise Suicide

The total, unmitigated failure to stretch the MMOG experience outside of the boundaries of fantasy RPGs is evident here, and it should be cause for worry in this industry. Not only did EA's The Sims Online not reach the hundreds of thousands of new online gamers it was supposed to reach with its highly social style of gameplay, but it has retreated to almost half of its original peak.

EA's sci-fi game, Earth and Beyond, is ending as of September, and experiments in non-competitive communities like There.com seem to have remained micro-niche items. As Woodcock points out, it is possible for small-scale MMOGs like SecondLife, ToonTown Online, and WWII to survive at under 50,000 subs, if the business model allows. But, they "do not appear to have the mass appeal that sci-fi/fantasy genre does at this time." But surely there must be persistent world experiences that have a competitive edge yet don't require spending a second career online. There must be something between the detailed MMORPG and the casual pick-up game.

In fact, virtually all of the major MMOGs coming into an already competitive market deploy powerful brands in the sci-fi and fantasy genres: Warcraft, Dungeons and Dragons, Final Fantasy, Matrix, Middle Earth, etc..

Unless more than half of the many MMOGs scheduled to appear in the next six months get pushed, there is likely to be a cannibalistic bloodbath of Lord of the Rings proportion in coming months as these mega franchises tear at one another and at older MMOGs:

* Auto Assault (NCSoft, March 2005)

* Dragon Empires (Codemasters, Dec. 2004)

* Dungeons and Dragons Online (Atari/Turbine, Summer 2005)

* EverQuest II (Sony, Dec. 2004)

* Final Fantasy XI (Square-Enix, Fall 2005)

* Guild Wars (NCSoft/ArenaNet, Feb. 2005)

* Matrix Online (Sega/Warner Bros., Nov., 2004)

* Middle Earth Online (Vivendi/ Turbine, Feb. 2005)

* The Saga of Ryzom (Nevrax, Fall 2005)

* Vanguard: Saga of Heroes (Microsoft/Sigil, TBA)

* Worlds of Warcraft (Blizzard, TBA)

In handicapping the coming franchise clashes, Woodcock says "World of Warcraft and EverQuest II are 'the next big things,' even though they are attempting to compete in the already crowded fantasy genre. They should have no problem getting 100,000 to 200,000 subscribers within, say, six months of launch." Many MMOG players are getting jaded, however, as they feel disappointed by each new game that promises to fix the past problems of the genre but then over time frustrates the player so that he moves on to the next big thing. "Getting these potential consumers to actually stick to a particular MMOG for more than three to six months is going to be very difficult," he says.

DFC Intelligence estimated that the MMOG market was slightly more than $1 billion in 2003, with 34% coming from South Korea alone. This is one reason several U.S. game companies are hoping to expand their domestic MMOG franchises to Asia, especially China, where the hunger for this genre is apparently insatiable. Despite the cannibalization, high development costs, and high risk involved in releasing MMOGs, DFC said in a recent brief that "consumer spending is nowhere near close to its maximum potential."

Contact: Brice Sterling Woodcock, sirbruce@ix.netcom.com

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