GTA: San Andreas and Halo 2 Could Own Q4

Electronic Gaming Business, Sept 22, 2004

That large sucking sound you hear is the approaching juggernaut of Rockstar/Take-Two's Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (Oct. 26) and Microsoft's Halo 2 (Nov. 9). GTA and Halo 2 represent an unprecedented twin tsunami that could suck gamer dollars and mind share out of the market for at least three or four weeks at the height of the key buying season. According to its upcoming "Holiday 2004 Outlook Report," GameSpot Trax is seeing monstrous interest in these two brands (see chart).

"In our history of almost three years of tracking data in GameSpot Trax, we have not seen any games command the disproportionate amount of attention as GTA: San Andreas and Halo 2 have," says Joshua Larsen, director, GameSpot Trax. "Both titles are averaging an impressive 11-12 clicks per gamer."

GTA interest is staggering, with over 30 million information requests and more than 7.5 million message board views in the last two months alone. Combine the game's 50 to 150 hours of play with this consumer fixation, and it is possible gamers will lose themselves in GTA to the exclusion of other games.

And with 13.3 million info requests from most Xbox-ers, "The percentage of Xbox owners who will own or play Halo 2 may be one of the highest percentages any game system has seen for an individual title."

EGB's take is that GTA: SA and Halo 2 will not ruin Christmas for everyone else, but the two games have become cultural events. The core will buy and play these titles to the exclusion of much else. Interest is so deep and communal that gamers will dedicate themselves to getting through the games, for bragging rights and for experiences to share with other gamers.

And So, More Games for Giving

The good news is that so many consumers will want to engage these worlds immediately, that core gamers are likely to buy GTA and Halo 2 with their own money and before the heart of the holiday buying season, leaving other titles room to grab mind share and slots on gift lists. Rather than competing with GTA/Halo 2 month, publishers should ride the coattails; release their key titles in late November and merchandise hard to all of the November foot traffic.

While 500 SKUs are scheduled for release in the quarter, mind share seems fragmented by all of this franchise largesse. Among tactical shooters, Konami's MGS 3 is garnering nine to ten times more info requests as Conflict: Vietnam and Ghost Recon 2 on consoles. Among MMOGs, World of Warcraft is getting three or more times the interest of Matrix Online or the next Star Wars Galaxies expansion. For platformers, Sony will own the genre, with Jak 2 and Ratchet and Clank: Up Your Arsenal splitting the field.

Otherwise, however, pre-release interest levels suggest that consumers may be ready to split their dollars among mega brands, perhaps leading to disappointing sales for franchises that are trying to slip in final iterations for this hardware cycle. The historical shooters like Medal of Honor: Pacific Assault and Men of Valor are running even in this home stretch as are the racing brands GT4 and Need for Speed Underground.

The category that looks poised for the worst instance of franchises cannibalizing one another is fighting, with major releases from THQ, Midway, Tecmo, Atari and EA, all garnering similar strong interest from users. "Is there enough unique about each of the top five for them all to succeed?" asks Larsen. "WWE grabs its wrestling fans; Mortal Kombat gets its followers; Dead or Alive snares the Xbox Live crowd; Dragon Ball Z attracts the younger set, and Def Jam pins down the more hip-hop/urban crowd? I don't know if there's enough to go around for all of them in one season but at least there is some differentiation."

It is quite likely that major franchises will come out of Q4, and so the tail end of this hardware cycle, diminished rather than strengthened for the next-gen systems. Publishers should prepare for this now and erect strategies for propping up these brands in the post-holiday quarter with sales and bundling incentives. Ubisoft kept Prince of Persia at the edges of the top ten sales list in the U.S. for months after last year's disappointing Christmas sales. Having such a fall back strategy in place for the victims of holiday cannibalization is in order for most titles this year.

Top 5 Action Adventure Games*
Rank: 1
Title: Grand Theft Auto:  San Andreas
Publisher: Rockstar
Platform: PS2
Release Date: 10/19/04
Info Requests: 30,099,976

Rank: 2
Title: Silent Hill 4: The Room
Publisher: Konami
Platform: Ps2, Xbox, PC
Release Date: 9/7/04
Info Requests: 2,113,632

Rank: 3
Title: Metroid Prime 2: Echoes
Publisher: Nintendo
Platform: GC
Release Date: 11/15/04
Info Requests: 1,381,984

Rank: 4
Title: Leisure Suit Larry:  Magna Cum Laude
Publisher: VU Games
Platform: PS2, Xbox, PC
Release Date: 10/5/04
Info Requests: 1,173,490

Rank: 5
Title: Prince of Persia 2
Publisher: Ubisoft
Platform: PS2, Xbox, GC, PC
Release Date: 11/15/04
Info Requests: 870,616

Info Requests based on user clicks on information related to the title between
July 1 and August 31, 2004.