Market Forecast: Atari's Also-Rans — Can Pirates, Coasters and Retro Run Between Raindrops?

Electronic Gaming Business, Oct 6, 2004

Faced with a holiday juggernaut of mega-franchises threatening to "suck dollars out of the market," Atari CEO Bruno Bonnell insisted to investors recently that his slate of Q4 games would "run between the raindrops" and find niches of dedicated fans who are not necessarily lining up to buy Halo 2 or GTA: San Andreas. Of course, what each of these titles really needs are innovative ways to reach these non-core audiences -- outside-the-box marketing plans that, thus far, game companies have found difficult to imagine and to execute.

Sid Meier's Pirates

Publisher\Developer: Atari\Firaxis

Release Date: Nov. 16

Platforms: PC

Design: Combining simple, arcade ship and sword battles with resource management and grand strategy, Pirates does a yeoman's job of retaining the simplicity of the original legacy titles with elegant graphic and design twists. By telescoping in and out of micro to macro style of play, it offers a unique experience to gamers tired of excessive complexity.

Marketing and Competition: Atari needs to remind old gamers and teach new ones what the original Pirates was about and really push its key appeal -- that fun trumps realism and complexity. Get the marketing for this one out of the cluttered specialty stores and into the big box stores for optimum effect. There are no soft-core PC titles competing with it this season, but it is now scheduled to release in the shadow of Xbox's Halo 2 (Nov. 9) and just before the rumored date for Half Life 2 (late Nov.) so it has a better chance of poking through in mass chains.

Bottom Line: If Atari can grab the lapsed gamer market and remind these players how fun PC gaming used to be, it can win with Pirates, but without a compelling hook, the game will get lost at retail despite Sid's name. Currently #8 on Amazon.com's PC pre-sell list.

Market Prospects: B+

Rollercoaster Tycoon 3

Publisher\Developer:Atari\Frontier Developments, Ltd.

Release Date: Nov. 2

Platforms: PC

Design: This superb update of a casual gamer classic mixes Sim stylings (patrons with facial expressions and greater actions) with an excellent resource management interface, a fine 3D engine (for riding the rides) and even impressive environmental sound. RC fans will be very enthused by the improvements, and soft-core gamer will like the "sandbox mode" that turns the game into a toy building set free from financial constraints. The design hits all the right buttons.

Marketing and Competition: With 7 million RC titles sold, this is one of the few true family PC game franchises outside of The Sims. At #3 on Amazon.com's pre-sell list, it is already finding its built-in audience. There is no major competition in the builder/management genre this season.

Bottom Line: Like Sims 2 RC3 will sell itself to the fan base, but the opportunity for Atari is to make this title the wholesome family game of the year, positioned against a Christmas of controversial and mature, edgy titles. This should be at the door at Target, Best Buy and Wal-Mart as the safe title to buy this year.

Market Prospects: A

Atari Flashback Classic

Game Console

Publisher\Developer: Atari

Release Date: November

Platforms: Console

Design: (Not based on hands-on). Recreating the look and feel of the original Atari 2600/7800 consoles and packing in 20 classics like Centipede and Asteroids, Flashback is Atari's direct entry in the plug and play category. By using the original joystick design, and providing two, it appeals to social gaming and those who prefer the classic controllers. It does not, however, have any expansion capabilities (a card slot for additional games), which will disappoint many.

Marketing and Competition: The PnP category gets very cluttered this season (see EGB, Sept. 9), with some EA Sports controllers also pushing the price point to $29.99. We think the Flashback will stand out for its styling and pricing, but it is actually competing with its own licenses to JAKKS, where buyers get 10 classic titles for under $20. Charging $44.95 for 20 games, only a handful of which are still really enjoyable, is bound to leave all but the most die-hard retro-gamers questioning its value.

Bottom Line: If it succeeds, Flashback opens a whole new vista for PnP, but we think the odds are against it -- it is not providing enough value among competitors that are half the price.

Market Prospects: B- Conculsion: Atari Retrenches

After its costly ventures into the Matrix license and Driv3r, Atari pulls back to more modest game budgets and targeted marketing strategies that rely more on the corporate brand's identification with classic game play. We think all three Atari entries require deft marketing skills to actually run between the raindrops of this intense release season, however, and it will be a challenge for the company to find and touch the niches for these titles. While RC is a sure thing, both Pirates and the Flashback console are riskier because both can get easily drowned out by overwhelming competition.

[Copyright 2004 PBI Media, LLC. All rights reserved.]