The 2005 Deloitte Crystal Ball

Telecom Policy Report, Jan 19, 2005

According to new research from Deloitte, things are looking up this year when it comes to wireless and wireline trends. First and foremost, the company predicts big money for wireless companies, saying there will be nearly 2 billion wireless subscribers worldwide, adding up to 100-percent plus penetration in some areas. Look for Asia and Latin America to be key components of this success. In addition, the "me" generation will be basking in personalized content, including ring tones, real tones, wallpapers and basic games. Each download is another ka-ching for carriers and third-party providers alike.

And let's not forget about that hard-wired connection. Deloitte believes the public switched telephone network (PSTN), Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) and broadband will continue to flourish this year, with carriers cutting prices while pushing call volume with such enhanced services as stored number dialing, text messaging and conference calling. And VoIP will continue to be everyone's darling, especially if providers can overcome some niggling problems concerning quality, consistency and reliability. And broadband? No problem. High-speed access finally will outpace dial-up in many markets.

Says Phil Asmundson, a vice chairman and partner with Deloitte & Touche LLP and the national industry leader for Deloitte's Technology, Media and Telecommunications industry group, "Fixed operators will continue to reap the benefits of superior voice quality and reliability in 2005, generating billions of profitable voice minutes over the course of the year.

However, they will face increasing challenges from low-cost operators, mobile operators and VoIP. Broadband will continue to proliferate -- fueled by technology developments that drive demand for bandwidth -- yet profitability will decline. Wireless technologies will exhibit a similar pattern, with WiFi hotspots and WiMAX making more headlines than money."

How can the industry overcome this? He suggests providing bundles of converged services, making fixed-line handsets more powerful and convenient to use and accelerating deployment of fiber to the home.

[Copyright 2005 Access Intelligence, LLC. All rights reserved.]