High school dropout rate much higher than government says

Journal of Employee Assistance, The,  June, 2003  

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The U.S. high school dropout rate may be as high as 30 percent, almost three times higher than government estimates, with men accounting for 60 percent or more of dropouts, according to a study commissioned by the Business Roundtable and conducted by the Center for Labor Market Studies (CLMS) at Northeastern University.

Although the U.S. Department of Education puts the national dropout rate at 11 percent, it relies on incomplete data to generate its findings because each year 14 or more states do not report their dropout rates using common definitions and data collection standards. Also, the government counts individuals with a general equivalency diploma (GED certificate) as high school graduates, although they did not receive a regular high school diploma and generally fare worse in the labor market and in post-secondary education than individuals who get regular high school diplomas. In addition, the government does not count students who become incarcerated, though many are dropouts.

A more accurate way to calculate high school graduation rates, according to CLMS researchers, is to compare the annual number of diplomas awarded by public and private high schools to the number of 17- or 18-year-olds in America. Using this method, the nation's high school graduation rate has been only 70 to 71 percent in recent years.

Government statistics show that on average there are 120 to 130 male high school dropouts for every 100 female dropouts, but CLMS analysts say the true ratio is likely to be even higher because males are more likely to be undercounted by the U.S. Census Bureau and are much more likely to be incarcerated than women. The gender gap in high school dropout rates is reflected in college attendance and performance: Nearly two million more women are now attending college than men and are acquiring far more associate's, bachelor's and master's degrees. The disparity is highest among African Americans (166 women per 100 men in college in 2000), with Hispanics second (130-100) and whites third (126-100).

"The labor market is increasingly rewarding individuals with the skills acquired in college," said Andrew Sum, CLMS director and lead author of the study. "Weaker educational achievement among men will lead to fewer skilled workers, lower labor productivity, and a reduction in the rate of improvement in our standard of living. The reduced presence of men in higher education is in no one's interest--women's or men's--and a host of economic, sociological, and labor market problems will ensue if they aren't better engaged in the process."

State-by-State Graduation Rates, 1998-1999
(High school graduates as a proportion of
the 18-year-old population)

State               Graduation
                          Rate

Vermont                   92.1
Connecticut               87.6
Nebraska                  85.9
Minnesota                 85.3
N. Dakota                 85.1
New Hampshire             84.8
Iowa                      83.6
Pennsylvania              83.1
Maine                     82.6
Massachusetts             81.7
Maryland                  81.3
Wisconsin                 80.4
West Virginia             80.0
New Jersey                79.1
Montana                   78.8
Rhode Island              77.4
Ohio                      77.0
Utah                      75.7
Illinois                  75.5
Delaware                  75.5
Wyoming                   74.4
Arkansas                  74.3
Missouri                  74.1
Oklahoma                  73.8
Kansas                    73.4
South Dakota              73.3
Indiana                   73.2
Washington                73.0
Michigan                  72.9
Virginia                  72.5
Hawaii                    72.2
Idaho                     72.1
New York                  70.5
Kentucky                  70.0
Dist. of Columbia         69.3
California                68.1
Texas                     67.4
New Mexico                66.9
Colorado                  65.1
Alaska                    65.1
North Carolina            64.7
Oregon                    64.7
Nevada                    64.7
Florida                   63.3
Alabama                   62.8
Tennessee                 62.5
Louisiana                 62.5
Mississippi               60.4
South Carolina            60.1
Georgia                   58.5
Arizona                   55.8
United States:            71.3

SOURCE: The Business Roundtable, 2003

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