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Strategic Forum, July, 2006 by Christopher J. Lamb, Irving Lachow

* identify and understand the decision requirements of the job

* practice difficult decisions in context

* review decisionmaking experiences to learn what works and what does not.

The most promising option for practicing difficult decisions in life-like situations is decisionmaking exercises, which are thought experiments, usually built upon well-defined scenarios that attempt to capture the essence of specific decisions. Although often conducted as games, they can also utilize virtual environments that allow players to participate while dispersed at great distances. Decisionmaking exercises should not be confused with large-scale headquarters or field simulations involving dozens or hundreds of players and complex computer models. Each one is a simple, focused event targeted at the characteristics of specific decision: Well-designed [exercises] can be surprisingly effective at capturing the essence of a tough decision without many of the costs or other overhead of more complicated simulations or exercises. And, they can be usually be done in a much shorter period of time, so you can get more repetitions. (19)

Participation alone will provide Pentagon leaders with new experiences to improve their intuition, but they will learn more quickly if they analyze their decisionmaking after the fact to identify lessons for future reference. (20) It is more helpful for people to reflect on how they made a particular decision than on the outcomes of a specific decision, which is often done in games and exercises. The Decision Support Cell can facilitate discussions with senior leaders to achieve this result. In addition to sharpening intuitive decisionmaking skills in areas of particular concern to them, such exercises would familiarize senior leaders with one another and their predilections.

Finally, the Decision Support Cell should help record the results of real-world intuitive decisionmaking. Even though intuitive decisionmaking is idiosyncratic to some extent, and often politically sensitive, the cell must capture senior leader concerns and desires well enough to help middle management understand the factors that informed the decisions made by senior leaders. Doing so should increase trust in the system and improve the quality of decision support. Middle managers would see that senior leaders gave their proposals due consideration and made their decisions based on a wider set of criteria than they were able to consider.

Objections

What are the potential objections to a Decision Support Cell? First, some might argue that the depiction of Pentagon decisionmaking provided here is too harsh and that major reform is not necessary. They would note that hundreds of information-sharing bodies exist in the Pentagon that, in principle, could provide integrated support to the Secretary. The truth, however, is that such committees can neither reward nor compel a truly free flow of information, nor are they empowered to make team decisions as opposed to producing consensus products. Rare exceptions such as the Joint Improvised Explosive Device Task Force, which improves the collective response to roadside bombs in Iraq but still cannot field end-to-end solutions with all the required support, only serve to highlight the fundamental truth about the prevailing weakness of cross-cutting groups in the Pentagon.