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Volcanic Hazard Detection Improves, National Alert System Still Needed

Air Safety Week, March 27, 2006

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) continues moving ahead with establishing a national, integrated volcano early-warning system that the airline industry and other interested parties will be able to routinely tap into to avoid the hazards of volcanic ash.

To this end, the agency convened a stakeholders workshop last month in Portland, Ore., which was well attended by representatives from the aviation community and various federal agencies, says Jim Quick, program coordinator for the USGS Volcano Hazards Program. As a result of that meeting, five separate working groups are now developing a draft plan for a national early-warning system. By the end of the current fiscal year this September, the plan is expected to be ready for public consumption.

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But on what date the system actually becomes operational is another matter, and will likely be subject to vagaries of congressional support. A recurrent theme at a March 16 hearing on volcanic threats to aviation before the Senate Commerce, Science, Transportation Subcommittee on Disaster Prevention and Prediction was the diminishing support on Capitol Hill for volcano monitoring, which may in turn result from some lawmakers' general impressions that there's no longer a big problem with volcanic ash.

In aviation, volcanic ash can get sucked into a jet engine, melt and adhere to engine parts, and possibly cause an engine flame-out. Ash can also block the view out of the cockpit windows and, because of the attendant static electricity, interfere with radio communications.

"From 1980 to 2005, more than 100 turbojet aircraft have sustained at least some damage after flying through volcanic ash clouds, resulting in cumulative damages of over $250 million dollars," Captain Terry McVenes, executive air safety chairman for the Airline Pilots Association (ALPA), testified at the hearing. "At least 7 of these encounters have resulted in temporary engine failure, with 3 aircraft temporarily losing power from all engines. Engine failures have occurred at distances from 150 to 600 miles from the erupting volcanoes. Ash related aircraft damages have been reported as far as 1800 miles from a volcano eruption."

Experts concur that the science of predicting volcanic eruptions has improved dramatically in recent years. A case in point is the Jan. 10 prediction of the Jan. 11 eruption of Augustine Volcano, near Anchorage, Alaska, by the nearby Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), according to scientists at both AVO and USGS.

"Happily, prediction of eruptions in a useful time frame is often possible for volcanoes through observation of increased seismicity, subtle inflation, and increased heat and gas output. These changes are detected through surface seismic and GPS networks, through surveillance flights, and through sophisticated satellite remote sensing techniques," AVO Coordinating Scientist John Eichelberger told Congress at the same hearing.

AVO, which is affiliated with USGS and the University of Alaska Fairbanks, among others, currently monitors 30 volcanos. No other volcano observatory in the world comes close to that number, Eichelberger said.

There also have been no total engine failures in aviation due to volcanic hazards since 1991, but there's still a need for better monitoring, McVenes testified.

Better volcano monitoring, at this point, largely means a more integrated system of immediate data sharing. It also means filling in most of the gaps where there's currently the "highest threat" along with the "poorest monitoring," Quick tells Air Safety Week. And that's what USGS addressed in the middle of last year with a report that, among other things, identified the volcanos that are under-monitored and pose the greatest threats to aviation (Air Safety Week, May 16).

Key to integrating the data, Quick adds, is looking at the information- technology needs of the observatories that will be linked together, as well as their sponsoring universities and other partners. Something else everyone involved in developing the new system also realizes is that it won't work without a national watch office that is operating 24/7.

There are two basic models under discussion for having such an office. One would be to give it a permanent location. Right now, a leading candidate is Anchorage, Alaska. The second option would have the location rotate among various facilities on a set schedule. There would still be one call-in number for aviation and others to use, and the scheduling would take advantage of time- zone differences. Meanwhile, the relative efficiencies and costs of the two models also must be evaluated.

Additionally, the working groups are looking into the latest data analysis tools and data archival needs. The latter can help scientists predict how a new eruption might proceed based on the records of past eruptions at the same volcano, Quick explains. It's like a doctor diagnosing a patient's condition, and then giving a prognosis based on how the disease has developed in other patients.

Government Industry

Volcanic Hazard Detection Improves, National Alert System Still Needed

Air Safety Week, March 27, 2006

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